this post was submitted on 12 Jun 2024
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Pennsylvania

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538 Model Says Pennsylvania is 2024 'Tipping Point' (www.politicspa.com)
submitted 5 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
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[–] [email protected] 4 points 5 months ago (1 children)

Did ABC/538 get to keep the political forecast models?

I was under the impression that Nate Silver owned the original models, and took the models with him when he left?

I guess ABC would have been able to keep the older models.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 5 months ago

You are correct. Nate Silver is actually looking to publish his own models, he's writing about it on Substack.

He said the 538 models are cool, but he hasn't worked on anything since June 2023.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 5 months ago (1 children)

Biden only wins 52/100 simulations lol. It's a coin flip.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 5 months ago

Always worth noting whether these simulations are trying to predict the winner on election day or winner if the election were held today. It's often glossed over but it's wildly important to know to put the model into context.