Aussie Enviro

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An Australian community for everything from your backyard to beyond the black stump.

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Supercharged thunderstorms: have we underestimated how climate change drives extreme rain and floods? (theconversation.com)

submitted 5 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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cross-posted from: https://slrpnk.net/post/9363398

I just used to accept the 7% increase per c figure but as indicated

This figure comes from research undertaken by the French engineer Sadi Carnot and published 200 years ago this year.

Their work has shown it's much more

For Australia, we helped develop a comprehensive review of the latest climate science to guide preparedness for future floods. This showed the increase per degree of global warming was about 7–28% for hourly or shorter duration extreme rain, and 2–15% for daily or longer extreme rain. This is much higher than figures in the existing flood planning standards recommending a general increase of 5% per degree of warming.

and they explain why

We now know there’s more to the story. Yes, a hotter atmosphere has the capacity to hold more moisture. But the condensation of water vapour to make rain droplets releases heat. This, in turn, can fuel stronger convection in thunderstorms, which can then dump substantially more rain.

This means that the intensity of extreme rainfall could increase by much more than 7% per degree of warming. What we’re seeing is that thunderstorms can likely dump about double or triple that rate – around 14–21% more rain for each degree of warming

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[–] [email protected] 2 points 5 months ago

if we have, we are extremely fucked