Beekeeping and Bees

I'm wondering how people are handling splits with this early warm weather. It's so variable that I'm not comfortable trying a split yet, not to mention that I've only got capped drone brood and no mature drones in my own hives.

Our willow trees are starting to bud out, so forage is becoming more available. I've got one hive that's really strong coming out of winter and I'm worried I'm going to be surprised by a swarm too early in the season.