I wonder if the rest of NATO would allow this. Like, okay, the US "pulls out" and stops all their commitments to NATO. It would still be in NATO's best interest, should Trump eventually leave office, that the US retain its membership. Create a paperwork "penalty box" that allows Trump to feel like he's won but allow future, more sane Presidents, an easy on-ramp back into full membership.
this post was submitted on 12 Feb 2024
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I wonder if the rest of NATO would allow this.
I imagine he'd "pull us out of NATO" like he "pulled us out of NAFTA". Which is to say he'd slap a new "America First" label on the old organization, take a few weeks off to vacation at a bunch of European golf courses, do a big signing ceremony in front of OAN handi-cams, and yell "I Made America Great Again" into the faces of anyone who thinks this is baby-tier bullshit.
Create a paperwork “penalty box” that allows Trump to feel like he’s won but allow future, more sane Presidents, an easy on-ramp back into full membership.
I think the real end-game is about goosing US military exports. Trump threatens a pull out, on the condition that all the member states boost their domestic military budgets. Then those member states buy more shit from American MIC contractors. The MIC rewards Trump with political capital. And Trump takes kickbacks in the form of club memberships and no-show jobs for his extended family.
My man loves to bluff about taking his ball and going home. And he'll happily sign a big executive order with an oversized sharpee, proclaiming "We Aren't In NATO Anymore!" whether or not we actually left, because it plays well with his base. But the real influence that the US has in NATO is more about Trump extending/denying France or the UK or Finland or whomever with navy and air support to hold business assets in former colonies.
Trump knows that and he knows it offers him immense leverage, given how much these other countries rely on US power projection. So he'll very likely get a new wave of EU militarization at the enrichment of American MIC, because its the only way the other NATO states decouple their reliance on the US for "free" military support.
That said, that can backfire. Several major member states of the EU are already talking about proper remilitarization that wasn't needed since the wall fell. There are nascent beginnings of a joint European army and a joint European MIC. Why would EU states spend more money on US stuff that it already thinks it doesn't need, if it can just use the same money and pour it into the FCAS project for example, creating jobs and keeping money at home?
Orbán used to be a huge Trump fan, and he actually went and started spending more money on the military when the was Trump's thing. Only it wasn't American F-35s he got, it was a bunch of German Leopard 2A8 tanks and French Eurocopter EC725 helicopters and Norwegian NASAMS launchers. There is also a stated intent to skip 5th gen and get into the FCAS if and when that materializes.
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Thanks for welcoming me to your town Mayor Winky.
Is John Bolton a good guy now?
Literally zero people said that.
From what I understand, Trump alone could not make the US leave NATO. And despite how despicable some Republicans are, I think he’s made enough enemies within his own party to never see that actually happen.