I believe your assumption is correct, you are seeing the number of subscribers from your local instance.
this post was submitted on 15 Dec 2023
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I'm not sure how subscribers are counted, but the reason posts can have more upvotes than subscribers is because when you post it goes to the all feed for everyone
Yeah, I do know that (I mainly browse all too), but it appears a lot, so much I doubt it's a coincidence. I've even seen some communities with only 1 subscriber that have 2 or 3 mods, several active posters, with each post getting ~10 upvotes