this post was submitted on 18 Feb 2024
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Yes, what I'm saying is that lower costs for software, which AI will help with, will make software more competitive against human production labor. The standard assumption is that if software companies can reduce the cost of producing software, they'll start firing programmers but the entire history of software engineering has shown us that that's not true as long as the lower cost opens up new economic opportunities for software users, thus increasing demand.
That pattern stops only when there are no economic opportunities to be unlocked. The only way I think that happens is when automation has become so prevalent that further advancement has minimal impact. I don't think we're there yet. Labor costs are still huge and automation is still relatively primitive.