this post was submitted on 30 Nov 2023
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Huang is talking about complete independence, not just leading edge node production like i've seen many people assume based on the headline. Achieving this in 10-20 years with the volume of components needed is actually pretty optimistic.
The truth is, the U.S. and other countries dont really want to create (and spend) for complete chip independence, they just dont want to depend on Taiwan and China. Outside of wartime production, chips would just be sourced from the U.S. and trading partners like Korea, Vietnam, Japan, Ireland, Germany.
Isn't it reliant on places like Israel, Taiwan, and South Korea? And how many of those places invested in such capacities to guarantee a degree of US protection and involvement.
The reality is that you’re going to see more places investing in these capabilities now, precisely because the chip shortage has shown how critical these capabilities are.
The ability to manufacture these is no longer simply an economic consideration. For countries that can afford it, it is a security consideration as well, and that changes the calculus of how much they’re willing to invest in their own industries and infrastructure.
On the other hand, thinking that putting in a bit of money in is going to make a difference is wishful thinking. The US put tens of billions into the CHIPS act, but this is a one-time off thing. Taiwan and TSMC invests tens of billions every year to keep its edge, and has been doing so for decades.