this post was submitted on 27 Nov 2023
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Three-team title race to the very end? (alien.top)
submitted 11 months ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
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1/3 of all games played and it seems Arsenal, Man. City and Liverpool are very close not only on where they are at the table, but also regarding performances throughout the 13 games.

Do you think this will be a tight race all the way to May?

If not which team do you expect to fall out of the title race and why?

(fair to say Villa and Spurs are also up there but IMO both lack squad depth and cannot see them as title challengers come May)

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[–] [email protected] 0 points 11 months ago (1 children)

This is largely pointless because everyone commenting is screwed up by there biases.

  1. Man City - Most people won't say anyone other than City because the recent history makes it seem silly to suggest that City won't do it. I get that, but people forget this isn't the same city team that has won 5 of the last 6. Yea, they are still extremely good, and are arguably the still the favorites. However, key players are getting older or have left. Is the motivation the same after so many wins. Personally, I don't think this is the best city team, and I think there rivals for the title are much better than they have been in the past. Streaks don't last for ever.

  2. Liverpool - This one is weird. Lot of people still have the the awesome Liverpool team from 18/19 to 21/22 in there head, but its contradicted by the poor Liverpool team of most of last season. Their offense is still great, but where they struggled was Defense and Midfield. There is definitely improvements in midfield, but I'm not sure about defense and I don't know if these improvements are enough to take them over 38 games.

  3. Arsenal - Obviously I'm biased. Lets get that out of the way. The team has been different in 23/24 then it was last season, but still on 30 points after 38 games. The question is if this is the new normal or is this a case of the team needing to settle so that it can take a step up from here. I'm a fan, so I tend to look at it as Arsenal haven't played their best for a variety of reasons. So when they pull it all together they will really make a push for the title.

I also think people have a tendency to underestimate Arsenal, and back up that opinion with revisionist history. For example, before the 21/22 season rivals and pundits thought it would be another 8th-6th year, but when we narrowly missed 4th it wasn't all about Arsenal bottling it instead of them doing a lot better than originally expected. Before the 22/23 season, rival fans and pundits had us at most at 4th. but when we narrowly missed the title everyone talked about us bottling the league rather than the doing better than originally expected.

So while, I can see why people might think this is the new normal and arsenal will struggle. I also think a lot of people think this because they have this idea that Arsenal have a recent history of failure rather than consistent improvement.

  1. The others
  • Spurs - have done a lot better than I expected, but are no where near the finished product they need to be to really challenge for a title. If they keep investing and improving they could be dangerous in a year or two. Hopefully Levy and Co will screw this up.
  • Aston Villa - Feel kind of stupid for even including them but they are 4th at the moment. There December is kind of brutal. I'm sure they will finish in the European places. Maybe squeak into CL with 5th or a EL win.
  • Man United - there organization is to much of a mess for them to really challenge. That said, last season showed that they can be very good for stretches. I could see them playing spoilers.
  • Newcastle - There current 7th is harsh, I bet they will move up with a relatively weak December. I think 4th or 5th is very much in the cards for them, but not strong enough yet to challenge for the title.
  • Chelsea - They are 14 points back already. Obviously they are logically out of the title race this year. I think they will do better than their current 10th, but lets face it. They've been a shit show from the top for a season or two. A lot of people assume they will eventually get there shit together, but I don't know why.
  • Brighton - Very good team still, but I think there days as a team punching above there weight are coming to an end. However, they could play spoilers.

Now that I've likely pissed off everyone. I'll stop.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 11 months ago (1 children)

agree with you almost all the way through. chelsea have been showing improvement though they look like they’re starting gel (although the baseline is low), could see them start to click and cause some problems for higher placed teams

[–] [email protected] 1 points 11 months ago

People who assume Chelsea are going to come good are basing it on two things. Recent history and Money spent, and both of those things don't necessarily matter.

  • Recent history - If Roman Abromovich or any of his team were still in place, then pointing to the history is a decent point. Abromovich's team showed that they could do it, But that leadership is gone. We don't know if Boehly and company can do it. And lets face it, They've done a lot of weird things. Maybe they are geniuses and we just don't see it yet, but its just as likely if not more likely that they are making mistakes.
  • Money Spent - There is no denying that success in world football is highly correlated with Money Spent and Chelsea have spent a ton. However its not a perfect correlation. While you have examples like Man City who spend a lot of money really well and become absolutely dominant., you also have examples like Man United who spend a lot of money poorly. Sure, ManU has won a few cups in the last 10 years, but I don't think many people consider them a success given the money they've spent, the players they've signed and the managers they've hired.

With Chelsea its to early to tell if they've spent the money well or not. If they did, then they could be a powerhouse in a short time. At this point it looks like they could have some hits, but it also looks like there are at least a few misses.

I fully expect Chelsea to climb back up to the European spots this season, but this thread is about title contenders. Until they show that they know what they are doing from an executive level, its going to be hard to say that they are title contenders.