Hardware

I would bet on not a significant upgrade as well. Performance per transistor in Ada vs Ampere actually went down, mostly because they spend so much transistor budget on cache. 170% more transistors for 65% more performance, if you assume the full potential AD102 die is 15% faster than a 4090. But even before AMD and Nvidia started playing with massive caches, you could always relatively accurately predict how fast a GPU would be based on transistor count.

Cache is not shrinking in die area with new nodes. If this thing has 128MB, and the rest of the die stays at 600mm^(2), the area dedicated to logic would be smaller than AD102. Unless they start stacking cache that is. Would not shock me, if most, or all the L2 is on a 2nd layer.

I've heard 60% more logic density going from 5nm to 3nm, but who knows how optimistic those numbers are as they are probably best case scenario. Can't but imagine a real GPU application would at maximum reach 40-50% more logic density, and I can't imagine a performance uplift higher than that, unless they make it a 800mm^(2) die which I don't believe.