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Kinda.
Though I will add, what Intel calls "10nm" is equivalent to TSMC's "7nm".
So yes, if they fail to progress past Intel 7, they will be screwed in the future. Overcoming an entire nodes difference in PPA is extremely hard, and with Intel having worse design teams than its competitors, it becomes an esentially impossible task.
Intel does have Intel 4, and they claim they are shipping it to OEMs already, with MTL (the Intel 4 product) launching in Dec. However it appears it's mobile only, and we have no idea about the volume. If it's just a paper launch, and yields/volumes take years to fix, (like Intel's 10nm), then yes, they will be hurt badly.
Idk if I would go as far to say they would be screwed, but the company they would be in this scenario would be unrecognizable compared to the current Intel.