this post was submitted on 10 Nov 2023
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Could microsoft want to close the ecosystem similar how Apple does?
Release Windows 12, only MS Store is allowed. The hardware is some ARM SoC so Linux compatibility is questionable or none and even Windows reinstalls/custom cheap keys/no-os systems are off the table. They can even use custom soldered storage and RAM to be even more Apple. Then next-gen consoles would be a similar ARM SoC to give Windows 12 cross compatiblity.
This would have severe consequences as PC gaming would probably secced from Windows. Valve and other stores would just go Steam OS mode like with the Steam Deck. The games then would be made for ARM consoles, ARM PC Windows and hopefully x86 legacy Windows, x86 Linux and whatever Sony decides to do. That's somewhat to crazy. And not like AMD and Intel would not have competitive x86 chips.
Also Apple is strong in USA while in other regions it does not have the same brand perception. US based content creators will see this differently than the rest of the world.
I did not spend much time speculating how Microsoft would make 2024 Windows 12 on ARM any different from any previous Windows version before it other than better general ARM support via fat binaries and Dynamic Binary Translation (DBT) rather than just SnapDragon.
What I did spend time on is how Android ARM chip makers + Nvidia & AMD will rollout their hardware based on preexisting IPs.
Laptops are just smartphones with a bigger screen, full keyboard, touchpad & at most a 99.5Whr battery.
Desktops are just smartphones with a bigger screen, full keyboard, mouse & at most a 1.5kWh PSU.
All of them will likely focus on laptops 1st for the 1st 2-3 years. Reason being that ~80% of all PCs shipped annually worldwide are laptops.
Android chip makers would likely not offer ARM PC parts with sockets or slots for replaceable parts. Their Windows on ARM laptops would be more like Macbook Airs than x86 laptops.
Nvidia & AMD will likely leverage their dGPU IPs and offer laptops more aligned with Macbook Pro M3 Pro & M3 Max. Sockets & slots slightly more likely to occur with them as they have the past experience with it from x86 days.
ARM PC desktops may be more akin to a Mac mini M3 & M3 Pro among Android chip makers that has zero replaceable parts than x86 ATX desktop in the 1st 2-3 years.
The top-end palyers would be Nvidia & AMD due to their dGPU IPs and past x86 desktop experience.
Intel's reaction to this would be to push legacy-free x86-S SoC for their laptops and eventually their desktops. They may go for both high-end and low-end parts. Good thing Intel decided to start their own dGPU division earlier.
Legacy x86 will likely halt further R&D and continue to produce 5nm 14th gen Intel chips for another decade or so until demand drops below economic levels. When that occurs then legacy software users & legacy high-end gamers can opt to FPGA their needs or buy from a legacy x86 refurbisher. I wouldn't be surprised that by year 2078 there would still be tens of thousands 16-bit & 32-bit software users.