this post was submitted on 29 Jun 2023
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Those numbers hardly describe a "plunge". Much lower impact than I had hoped honestly
They're lining up an IPO. Anything suggesting that they can't maintain 5-10% real growth year after year (like other companies that investors could put their money) is truly damming. A sustained decrease in revenue, even a small one, is going to gut the IPO valuation.
I really doubt this will translate into a decrease in revenue, anyways. These numbers suggest very little sustained loss in traffic, and if that continues when the new API pricing kicks in they'll probably come out ahead
You'll probably see a decent sized dip at the point where the changes go into effect. There are probably a lot of people using apps like Apollo until they can't: once they can't, certainly not everyone is just going to go install the inferior reddit app and start using it.
Also, it's possible the relatively small drop will have more of an effect than might immediately be obvious. Social media sites like reddit, Twitter, etc aren't really that profitable (when they're profitable at all) — but people are willing to invest in them because they're currently still experiencing growth. So in this case, growth has not only stopped, but reddit lost some ground.
Except we can be sure that the entire drop is due to humans deciding Reddit is dead. How much of the remaining traffic are bots?