this post was submitted on 29 Aug 2023
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The divorce rate is not 50%. It's closer to 30%, 40% at worst.
Monogamy isn't equivalent to lifelong partner.
Aside from which, even a 50% chance at your marriage being one that results in lifelong partnership with someone you care deeply about seems like good odds.
Also, the 50% statistic is from all marriages, not first-time marriages. The figure goes way up due to people being divorced, married, divorced again, ad nauseam. I remember the first-time marriage divorce rate being somewhere in the range of 27-33%.
What is the rationale for not including ALL marriages?
Because it matters to the person in the category. If you're a young lad or lass in love, and you are considering marriage, knowing that only a quarter of the marriages similar to yours end in divorce is a hugely different take than half of them.
Also out of that 33 I imagine a good chunk is people who were dating a couple months before deciding to get married, or those who got married because of an accidental pregnancy.
If you take first time marriages, where they were dating for over 1 year, and did not conceive a child until after being married, I imagine it's near 10%, maybe less, but I have no data to back that up.