this post was submitted on 11 Jun 2023
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There's also the error bars.
Scientists will determine that the temperature will rise by between 1°C and 6°C. That's a big range. Climate change is complicated and it's impossible to account for all of the variables.
To the scientist (and their colleagues) they'll know that 3°C is most likely, and this type of paper reads like a dire warning... but when the news breaks, it goes. One of two ways:
"1-6°C is a huge range, scientists must not know what's going on. What does this even mean?"
"Scientists report that temperature will rise by at least 1°C, the UN Council on Blah Blah says that we should keep under 1.5°C..."
It's maddening, really. Most of the scientists I know are doomers.