this post was submitted on 15 Feb 2025
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So what happens if Zelensky sides with Europe on this one? How does the US apply its peace plan if it's been negotiated solely with Russia? The only way I see this working is the US sending troops to fight along with Russia...
Neither Zelensky nor Europe have any agency here. The U.S. has decided that neither have a place at the table. Instead, Russia and the US will hash out the details while Europe is left to graciously foot the bill and shut up. Kellogg suggested that European leaders stop whining about being sidelined and instead offer concrete solutions, and the reality is there are no solutions Europe can offer. US priorities are to extricate themselves from the war and make sure Europe pays for it all. The message to Europe to keep quiet, and pray the grown-ups in Washington and Moscow don’t decide to trade your future for a handshake.
Zelensky can see the writing on the wall, and he's pleading for a European army in Munich. It's a desperate Hail Mary to avoid becoming a sacrificial pawn in America’s geopolitical chess game. Meanwhile, European leaders are trembling at the prospect of a US-Russia deal that screws them over. The reality is that Europe simply lacks the industrial capacity to keep up with Russia militarily, hence why the war ends when US pulls the plug on it.
The article you cite talks about military spending, not industrial capacity. Russia is running on a war economy, Europe isn't; this large difference in spending is to be expected. Surely Europe realises it cannot rely on the US for defense anymore, so there's a possibility they choose to dramatically increase its defense spending. If Ukraine loses the war, a lot of European countries won't have too much trouble convincing their citizens it needs to be done. The reason Europe has no "concrete solution", like you said, is because they won't accept the kind of compromise Putin would want. Now that the US decided not to be an ally anymore, I don't think they'll just stay there doing nothing.
There are plenty of articles directly discussing industrial capacity as well. Here are a couple:
It's also worth noting that Russian military industry is state owned which makes it inherently cheaper than privatized European industry. Also, Russia is absolutely not running a war economy. People who keep repeating this have no clue what a war economy is. Military spending in Russia is around 7% GDP. A war economy was what US ran in WW2 with 40% GDP being the military spending.
The Europe may realize that it can't rely on US anymore, but the reality is that Europe is largely deindustrialized and lacks energy independence. Production of things like steel is very energy intensive, hence why the UK is no longer able to produce steel, or much of anything physical domestically at this point. Other European countries don't fare much better. This was perfectly illustrated by Europe failing to meaningfully ramp up artillery shell production over the past three years. If Europe can't even make basic things like artillery shells, it's in no position to contest Russia militarily.
All this makes what Europe will or will not accept completely utterly irrelevant. Europe will be dictated to. It seems like Europeans are still suffering from delusions of grandeur, but the reality of the situation will start sinking in soon enough. Rhetoric alone gets you only so far.
To do so Europeans will either shop for US weapons or leave NATO and seek their own defense systems. As the late members quickly found out, and their populations don't like it, much of their existing military is obsolete, and the expense of complying with NATO membership will severely diminish their "traditional" welfare state, who has been more the target of US policy than Russian blockade from the markets. That is for Fins and Swedes good bye socialized health care and education, hello insurance and industrial indoctrination.
Germany doesn't even count on anything, it is still an occupied territory of the US, its health system reflects this satellite US in Europe territory, Last Germans to react and resist this occupation died in prison in white isolation rooms (Still in love with Ulrike despite of ideological separation - dreaded vanguardism).
If people can't understand history they will never understand moments and still pictures from it. The US still, since the 30s, is fighting communism in the very narrow minded way it perceives it. The US is just a mean barking dog of the global industrial/banking cartel. Not much more than that, sad but wonderful people serving that dog and keeping it alive.