this post was submitted on 27 Jan 2025
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United States | News & Politics
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It’s hard to predict. Frankly I’m not sure whether staying with the current federal tug of war or some kind of separation is more likely to lead to war. If I knew better then that would strongly influence my thinking because that is perhaps the worst possible outcome aside from maybe some kind of systematic mass-murder like under the USSR or Nazi Germany. Terrifying that these do not seem impossible anymore.
To be clear I don’t think it’s a good idea for blue states to unilaterally secede. I think it has to be some kind of compromise where both sides take their ball and go home. I’m not sure Trump would allow this though so I don’t see it happening immediately. In the current context secession would likely lead to a war and one we might lose since Trump would have a stronger grip on the military.
I wouldn't be so sure. He might, but then again, the high-level leadership of the US military is extremely constitutionally minded. All their training and a lot of their pride in what they do is rooted in it. He might decide, as the real horrors are starting to begin and no one really knows what to do about it, to fire anyone in the military who isn't loyal to him, and he might get quite a severe shock when they took the loyalty of most of their troops with them when they left.
Firing the military because they won't do what you want, so that then they're kicking around loose in civilian society ready to be slotted into the rebellion and increase its power tenfold, is a pretty traditional rookie coup mistake.