this post was submitted on 27 Nov 2024
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She didn't come up with the Wandel durch Handel doctrine, that one goes back to the 60s -- and it worked with the Soviets, at least apparently so. It wasn't just Merkel who had a consistent foreign policy Germany in general has a very consistent foreign policy, no matter the government. There's been like three major shifts total in the whole history of the republic (Ostpolitik, Signing off on the Kosovo intervention, now Zeitenwende).
As said I'm not actually trying to defend her, here, just trying to contextualise all this in German politics, but two things about her: Firstly, she just plainly lacks imagination or vision. Her MO has always been status quo, so don't attribute to malice that which can be attributed to being a conservative. Secondly, she plainly didn't have the power to change anything: The chancellor alone is not powerful enough in German politics to impose or create such a shift. When Scholz proclaimed the Zeitenwende he did exactly that -- proclaim it. He didn't cause it. It wasn't about some politicians or some foreign ministry bureaucrats analysing strategy, it was about the country as a whole being fed up with Russia's antics, the invasion was the last straw. Ostpolitik came against a backdrop of the people being fed up with going along with the US's militarism (e.g. Vietnam). Kosovo, well, not really a shift but a clarification: Yes going to war to stop a genocide is a perfectly valid thing to do.
There's plenty of things Merkel should be crucified for, but I can't blame our stance regarding Russia on her because if she had tried to make a meaningful change the country wouldn't have followed. Worse, it probably would have strengthened the position of the Putinversteher by claiming Russophobia.
What she absolutely could and should've done is not kill off our solar energy sector, not be beholden to fossil fuel (and nuclear) corporate interests, not been a complete brake on the energy transition. No German would've minded her telling Russia "well yes we're going to stop buying, you should invest that money we already gave you wisely there won't be coming much more". I can see how that, from an Ukrainian perspective, can seem like "she wanted to support Russia" -- nah. She wanted to support RWE, EnBW, etc, big German electricity companies who moved their investments to renewable energy way too late.
If you want to hate on someone may I propose Schröder. He's on record, this year, saying that there's free elections in Russia. Don't worry about the elections btw Ukraine support has a steady 2/3rd majority with more than half of that more hawkish than Scholz. Might have to go back on the legalisation of cannabis but if that's to be our punishment, then so be it.