158
Britain will rejoin the EU within 15 years, former Brussels chief predicts
(www.independent.co.uk)
this post was submitted on 26 Oct 2024
158 points (98.2% liked)
Europe
1590 readers
452 users here now
News and information from Europe ๐ช๐บ
(Current banner: La Mancha, Spain. Feel free to post submissions for banner images.)
Rules (2024-08-30)
- This is an English-language community. Comments should be in English. Posts can link to non-English news sources when providing a full-text translation in the post description. Automated translations are fine, as long as they don't overly distort the content.
- No links to misinformation or commercial advertising. When you post outdated/historic articles, add the year of publication to the post title. Infographics must include a source and a year of creation; if possible, also provide a link to the source.
- Be kind to each other, and argue in good faith. Don't post direct insults nor disrespectful and condescending comments. Don't troll nor incite hatred. Don't look for novel argumentation strategies at Wikipedia's List of fallacies.
- No bigotry, sexism, racism, antisemitism, dehumanization of minorities, or glorification of National Socialism.
- Be the signal, not the noise: Strive to post insightful comments. Add "/s" when you're being sarcastic (and don't use it to break rule no. 3).
- If you link to paywalled information, please provide also a link to a freely available archived version. Alternatively, try to find a different source.
- Light-hearted content, memes, and posts about your European everyday belong in [email protected]. (They're cool, you should subscribe there too!)
- Don't evade bans. If we notice ban evasion, that will result in a permanent ban for all the accounts we can associate with you.
- No posts linking to speculative reporting about ongoing events with unclear backgrounds. Please wait at least 12 hours. (E.g., do not post breathless reporting on an ongoing terror attack.)
(This list may get expanded when necessary.)
We will use some leeway to decide whether to remove a comment.
If need be, there are also bans: 3 days for lighter offenses, 14 days for bigger offenses, and permanent bans for people who don't show any willingness to participate productively. If we think the ban reason is obvious, we may not specifically write to you.
If you want to protest a removal or ban, feel free to write privately to the mods: @[email protected], @[email protected], or @[email protected].
founded 5 months ago
MODERATORS
you are viewing a single comment's thread
view the rest of the comments
view the rest of the comments
Ashamed to ask as an EU citizen, but did UK have some kind of special founding member privileges or something before? Didn't think we had that in the EU, only the vote by population size stuff.
I believe some other countries also keep their currency.
I think the other countries can effectively kick the can down the road for as long as needed. you do know your onions though.
That's what Sweden has been doing yes. However it very much is a "mutual understanding" type situation where Sweden is very attached to the SKE and the EU just doesn't really want to bother due to the situation being low-stakes high-friction. The UK also fits all criteria for "must use the Euro", but would not benefit from the same "mutual understanding" that Sweden does because the stakes for the Euro would actually be very large. It is quite unlikely that the EU would just bend the rules and let the UK keep their own currency this time. It is also quite unlikely that the British public would even come close to accepting the Euro.
Regardless of your position on the matter, remember that Brexit negotiations completely broke down multiple times over much, much simpler and lower-stakes questions. The British Ego is at least as large as the French's, and if four years of Brexit should have taught us anything it's that they have extremely unrealistic expectations and actually think that the EU should bend over backwards to have them back.
I think that accepting the euro would also be a way to ensure that the UK is locked in more
But great analysis
What I do consider possible though is a compromise that will introduce national backsides on Euro notes so they can have the King's mug on it.
We do, and Ireland, Denmark and Poland have gotten opt-outs, too (link). The United Kingdom, however, was so extreme about it, that Wikipedia dedicated an entire article just to their opt-outs.
The UK was no founding member of the EU by choice, if I remember correctly. And later on, they only joined due to the financial prospects, not the underlying idea(ls). They always acted as though they were special when they were part of the union (see aforementioned opt-outs) and completely lost it during the Brexit negotiations, when they acted as though they had some sort of leverage over the entire EU. I quite like CGP Grey's video on the topic: youtube.com
In my opinion, the French were right when they didn't want the British to join the union; most of their initial reservations did come true, after all. So, if the UK rejoined the common market without joining the EU, like Norway, for example, that would be fine by me. But no more.
As long as the British do not change their overall stance to the EU much more (and come to terms with their non-specialness), anyway.
The UK joined later.
And yes they did have special concessions (namely a currency opt-out, like Denmark, and a Schengen opt-out, like Ireland and I believe others), although the UK were far from the only ones that had special concessions. E.g. France has a roughly the same sized economy to the UK yet contributed billions less to the budget.
I'm not really sure why people act like the UK is the only country who had concessions. Various countries have all kinds of concessions, and the wealthiest ones typically had more, because they had the most political leverage.
The big ones are currency and the common agricultural policy. Schengen, meh, Britain is an island. There's plenty of EU territory that's not in Schengen what would be important is that Gibraltar joins the area for the simple reason that you can walk there.
The UK is the only country that got a discount on their payments.
Edit: I stand corrected. One of a few
Literally not true at all. France and the UK have a practically identical economy size, but France consistently paid billions less.
You are mistaken if you think countries had leverage to make demands but chose not to use it out of charity.
I found a list, and while I was indeed wrong, as there are other rebates, France is not on the List.
I don't know which numbers you are citing, but if you look at net contributions, payments from the EU to the members may of course also vary.
The UK was the first country to receive a discount though.
Not being part of the same rebate scheme does not mean France didn't pay less.
It literally does. France does not receive a rebate on the normal calculation by gross national income.
France did receive more EU payouts than the UK in the past ( Example from 2017 ), leading to lower net payments. That's not the same as paying less in the first place though.
You're confirming that France pays less in.
Obviously I'm talking about Net. Gross doesn't matter. If a man puts 1โฌ into a box and gets 1โฌ back, he's not really paid anything.
I'm not. They paid more in fact. They just also got more back out.
Wrong. What a country pays in and what it gets out are two entirely unrelated questions.
Payments to the EU are calculated by GDI and that's that (except when there is a rebate). They are supposed to be fair based on that metric.
Payments back to the members are not "free money" the government can spend on whatever. They are subsidies bound to specific purposes that have their own specific criteria of distribution. They are not designed to be fair by comparison of GDI or similar metrics. If there were, as a hypothetical example, an EU program to subsidize local winemakers, you can see how France would very likely receive more money out of this fund than the UK.
Saying Net doesn't matter is absurd. Of course it matters. What kind of logic is that?!
Person A gives person X 1โฌ in exchange for $1
Person B gives person X 1$ in exchange for $1,000
Who is getting the sweeter deal, A or B?
It's not about who gets the sweeter deal. It's not a transaction. Members don't buy services from the EU with their contributions. If France gets more payouts, it's because France has more of whatever triggers those payouts. It's not the GDI though, so "same GDI, different net payments" is a flawed argument.
If we're both in a tennis club and pay the same member's fees, but I go to play on Thursday, when there's less people, more space and a free drink at the bar for members, but you go on Saturday, when people are fighting for free courts and you can't find a seat at the bar, I get the better deal. That doesn't mean we're not treated fairly, we're just using different parts of what's available.
Now, if you had to pay higher fees in the first place because I said "I"ll only join if I get a discount", that would indeed be unfair.
This would be a fair point if the members didn't set the rules.
But members do set the rules, and France, just like other countries, use their clout to get rules that favour them.
The UK wasn't a founding member.
A major point the others fail to mention is that they got a special discount on their contributions to the EU Budget.