EV sales continue to rise, but the last year of headlines falsely stating otherwise would leave you thinking they haven’t. After about full year of these lies, it would be nice for journalists to stop pushing this false narrative that they could find the truth behind by simply looking up a single number for once.
Here’s what’s actually happening: Over the course of the last year or so, sales of battery electric vehicles, while continuing to grow, have posted lower year-over-year percentage growth rates than they had in previous years.
This alone is not particularly remarkable – it is inevitable that any growing product or category will show slower percentage growth rates as sales rise, particularly one that has been growing at such a fast rate for so long.
In some recent years, we’ve even seen year-over-year doublings in EV market share (though one of those was 2020->2021, which was anomalous). To expect improvement at that level perpetually would be close to impossible – after 3 years of doubling market share from 2023’s 18% number, EVs would account for more than 100% of the global automotive market, which cannot happen.
Instead of the perpetual 50% CAGR that had been optimistically expected, we are seeing growth rates this year of ~10% in advanced economies, and higher in economies with lower EV penetration (+40% in “rest of world” beyond US/EU/China). Notably, this ~10% growth rate is higher than the above Norway example, which nobody would consider a “slump” at 94% market share.
It’s also clear that EV sales growth rates are being held back in the short term by Tesla, which has heretofore been the global leader in EV sales. Tesla actually has seen a year-over-year reduction in sales in recent quarters – likely at least partially due to chaotic leadership at the wayward EV leader – as buyers have been drawn to other brands, while most of which have seen significant increases in EV sales.
Brakes may last the life of the EV (we were already seeing this with hybrids). Not only is there no engine oil, but there's also no transmission oil, no spark plugs, no catalytic converter, and coolant needs are far reduced. Batteries already coming out of manufacturers are significantly better than what's going in actual EVs on sale. That should make the heavier weight (more tire wear) go away.
There's a whole engine life support system that just goes away. It all adds up to much reduced lifetime costs. Especially if you do 90% of your charging at home.
Now, if we could get manufactures to make EVs as actual small cars instead of luxury SUVs, then we'd really see cost reductions. Hell, not even particularly small; a Toyota Corolla isn't that small, but manufactures seem to think it is. The few options on the market for this (Mini Cooper SE, Nissan Leaf) are lackluster.
@frezik @bluGill Being pedantic: there's still engine oil and transmission oil, but because (almost always, except in some performance BEVs) those are fixed and sealed, they practically do not require changing. Unless the manufacturer is unsure (some Hyundai EVs) or there's a fault and repairs required taking the assembly apart.
I'm really confused by the comparison between Corolla and Leaf - here on the European side, Leaf is the bigger car. https://www.carsized.com/en/cars/compare/nissan-leaf-2017-5-door-hatchback-vs-toyota-corolla-2018-5-door-hatchback/
I'm using "small" as meaning "not a goddamn SUV". Leaf is more of a hatchback.
@frezik Wait. You lot get a Corolla that isn't a hatchback? 😅
Yes, you typically get it as a sedan in the US.
https://www.toyota.com/corolla/
But there is a hatchback version.
https://www.toyota.com/corollahatchback/