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Generative AI hype is ending – and now the technology might actually become useful
(theconversation.com)
this post was submitted on 20 Aug 2024
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Is it me or is there something very facile and dull about Gartner charts? Thinking especially about the “””magic””” quadrants one (wow, you ranked competitors in some area along TWO axes!), but even this chart feels like such a mundane observation that it seems like frankly undeserved advertising for Gartner, again, given how little it actually says.
And it isn't even true in many cases. For example the internet with the dotcom bubble. It actually became much bigger and important than anyone anticipated in the 90s.
The graph for VR would also be quite interesting, given how many hype cycles it has had over the decades.
It's also false in the other direction: NFTs never got a "Plateau of Productivity".
A lot of tech hype are just convoluted scams or ponzi schemes.
All models are wrong, some models are useful.
The trough of disillusionment sounds like my former depression. The slope of enlightenment sounds like a really frun water slide.
Where are we on this? No way we're at the bottom of the trough yet.
Well, how disappointed are you feeling, personally?
Do you see your negative opinions of generative AI becoming more intense, or deeper within the next 6-12 months, or have they hit a plateau of sustained disappointment mediated by the prior 6-12 months?
Going down to disillusionment two months ago.
fascinating. Thank you.
This human reaction to a lot of stuff. It's interesting how it looks like a PID loop. https://theautomization.com/pid-control-basics-in-detail-part-2/
A poorly regulated pid loop..
One overshoot, one lesser undershoot and hit the target? When it's a different thing each time? Makes me think maybe there is hope for these monkeys yet!
I've notice a phenomenon where detractors or haters inflate hype that doesn't really exist and they do it so much that the their stories take on a whole new reality that never existed. Like it's self feeding and then when that hype does out the "reality" sets in and is pretty much the same trend as that chart.
I've seen it from everything. A lot of times with stuff like the right building stories about immigrants. I think it's media that drives it