this post was submitted on 11 Jul 2024
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politics

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[–] [email protected] 92 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (5 children)

This copium is off the charts ridiculous.

I don't want Trump to win, which is why I think it's incredibly unhelpful to spread the delusion that current polling is favorable to a Biden victory.

That wasn't even true before the debate, but at least there were enough polls within the margin of error that it was possible.

Biden's polling has only gone down since then, while Trump's have trended upwards. Not by the same margins, but still, opposite directions.

This article is actually arguing about changes in polls that are less than 0.5%, seriously, it's a joke...

Here is an aggregated page that links out to over 50 different polls for Georgia, one of the states mentioned in the article where Trump it's supposedly hurting, according to that article:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president-georgia.html

Here's that same aggregated polling information for the other two states mentioned in the article:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president-michigan.html

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president-north-carolina.html

Take a look and tell me if that article, much less it's headline, have any bearing on reality.

[–] [email protected] 14 points 1 month ago (3 children)

Yeah, dems are looking for any positive spin on this reeling campaign.

Posting 538 links here because they aren't paywalled and are doing similar aggregating with similar results for anyone who doesn't want to use nyt:

Georgia

Michigan

North Carolina

[–] [email protected] 29 points 1 month ago (2 children)

Just FYI, 538 today is not the same as it was when they became noteworthy. Nate Silver left the company (and its parent, Disney). He also took his models with him, since those were merely licensed (unlike the name/company).

The new 538 is being run by a guy with very questionable models.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 1 month ago (1 children)

Does Nate Silver have a new site?

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