this post was submitted on 28 Jun 2024
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If comsic desktop gets a perfect launch, it wouldn't be an over exaggeration to say, some amount of people will switch
The Next Great Thing(tm) will not make a number of users that is significant to any real world scenario move away from Windows. The only approach that might have a chance to do that is something that looks and feels as close as possible to Windows. Yes even the parts of Windows that are bad. All of it, except the most glaringly obviously horrible stuff (like ads in menus). And that also includes all the programs a significant number of users care about either running there out of the box without having to jump through any hoops or a replacement fulfilling the same "looks, feels and operates almost identical" criteria.
People care about something feeling familiar and not having to relearn stuff a lot more than about shiny new features.
Considering ms has changed the look and feel of windows itself over the years, sometimes pretty drastically, there's some leeway there.
I like pop_os, I run it on my laptop and will definitely be using Cosmic, but I think people are putting too much hope in it.