this post was submitted on 19 Apr 2024
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[–] [email protected] 2 points 6 months ago

Not really news that Tesla has a lot of headwinds, even before Elon’s peculiarities and ‘leadership’ is factored:

  • Was disruptive in early 2000s, now suffering from many of the same diseconomies as the auto industry
  • Vertical integration especially introduces huge CapEx that has to justify its continued existence via regular, strong sales. There’s a very good reason the big automakers sub-contract out a significant part of their BoMs for production and JiT stocking
  • Traditional auto makers (and government) are pushing EVs hard, greatly increasing competition especially in entry level markets where Tesla has poor showing
  • High profile recalls, durability issues, and ‘autopilot’ deaths leading to growing concern, both regulatory and consumer

We all know the stock is massively overvalued. The question is will it correct and level off, or fall so fast from that height that Tesla ends up like Lucid, Rivian, or Polestar etc as a low-mid manufacturer, or go so far that the short sellers bring the knives out until delisting