I'll admit that I hadn't considered the possibility of the democratic party fracturing. I disagree that it's more likely; the democrats are expecting defeat, don't seem to be as fed up with each other, and I think a victory is likely to strengthen the party rather than strain it. However, it definitely bears consideration and I'll try to figure out likely scenarios with the assumption that it does occur. Thank you for bringing the possibility to my attention.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 8 months ago (1 children)

It seems more likely to me because our first-past-the-post elections make a two-party system a mathematical certainty. If one of the major parties implodes, something else must take its place, and a faction among the other major party is much better equipped to attract the newly unaligned voters than third-party also-rans.

Manchin and the DINOs will go one way, AOC and The Squad go another. Party leadership will align with the former over the latter, so the Democrats become the new right-wing party. Whether the left-wing faction joins with the Green Party or the Greens become a faction of the new left party is a distinction without much difference.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 8 months ago

Oh, you're saying that the Democrats fracturing is likely given the GOP's collapse. (I had thought you meant that it's more likely to collapse than the GOP.) Yes, that's certainly a possibility. The extreme flank of the Democrats and the moderate flank of the GOP uniting is likely, but this still provides us the opportunity that I'm hoping for. This scenario should result in a less powerful fascist faction, a more distinct progressive faction, and a more condensed conservative/neoliberal faction; fertile ground for progressives and leftist to grow our movement. Given the backlash against Trump and the loyalty of his remaining base I expect that if this happens the fascist faction will be locked in to supporting their own for a while, which will pull votes away from the neoliberal faction. Ideally, we'll see deep blue states turn green and red states start to turn blue.