‼️ The terrorist attack in Moscow is a planned and deliberate provocation by the Russian special services at the behest of Putin.
☑️ Its purpose is to justify even tougher strikes on Ukraine and total mobilization in Russia.
❗️ The public execution of people in Moscow should be understood as Putin's threat of an even greater escalation and expansion of the war.
▫️ Peskov's statement about the "war" shortly before the terrorist attack was just a false start of a carefully planned Kremlin special operation.
✔️ Putin has a lot of experience in organizing such terrorist attacks as a way to strengthen his own power, starting with blowing up houses on the Kashirskyi highway. As then, today's action of intimidation of the Russians will be the reason for the maximum "tightening of the nuts" in Russia itself.
👉 Obviously, the Kremlin can accuse Ukraine of organizing a terrorist attack and use the shooting of its own citizens as a pretext for even more brutal attacks on civilian infrastructure and the killing of Ukrainian civilians. Today's attack on the civilian infrastructure of Ukraine is another link in the escalation initiated by Putin.
👥 Putin has repeatedly tried to intimidate the West, including using nuclear weapons. So this terrorist attack can be used as another "pretext" for increasing aggression.
☝️ However, the unhindered movement of a group of militants with assault rifles through the center of Moscow, as well as a lot of other indisputable evidence, indicate that the shooting at "Crocus City Hall" was organized by Russian special services. International embassies also warned about the preparation of a terrorist attack.
‼️ It is obvious to the whole world that the terrorist attack in Moscow is another crime committed by Putin to maintain his own power.
In our local news ISIS has claimed responsiblity for the attack. Who knows what really happened, but it's a bit of a stretch, even for Russian news, to blame Ukraine for that as media globally has this information. Not that it will stop them from at least trying to blame Ukraine, but this kind of freamongering and speculation is a bit too soon to happen.
It might be ISIS, it might be Russians themselves, it might be Ukraine or their associates, who knows. The fact is that the terrorist strike happened, but bluntly stating that it was Putin himself only a hour or two after the news was published doesn't help anyone. What matters is reaction to this in upcoming few days. Before that it's better to just follow how the whole thing goes instead of blatantly accusing anyone without any proof.
Gotta stop you right there. Ukraine orchestrating this attack is not in the realm of possibility.
I agree with your other points, but given Putin's track record with things like this I think it's absolutely relevant to mention the very real likelihood that this was orchestrated by Russia and will be used to escalate. Of course you are right that time will tell. But I for one appreciate the reminder of Putin's history in this regard and to be on guard for how this awful event and the tragic lost lives of innocent victims will be used by the Putin regime for his own nefarious purposes.
Strictly technically speaking, Ukraine could have done that, but I don't believe it either. FSB has already published a statement claiming terrorists had connections in Ukraine, as expected, but for FSB propaganda it's well enough if they even have some distant relative in Ukraine. It's not impossible that some individual in Ukraine would have given weapons for these guys, but ak47's are common enough all around and isis have their own supplies, so there's no need to travel that far to find weapons.
My point was that immediately pointing fingers to someone without any evidence doesn't do any good. Russia will of course at least try to spin this to suit their own purposes, but it doesn't mean that they orchestrated the attack. There's been warnings from the USA and other countries about possibility of terrorist attack in Russia for weeks, so it's a possibility that isis just decided that now it's a good time to hurt Russia because of their actions in Afganistan (or some other reasoning). Whatever the truth might be terrorism is terrorism and the whole thing has been condemned globally, myself included.
Either way this doesn't have immediate impact on Ukraine or war front. Russia maybe has now a bit more leverage for their propaganda, so mobilization of new troops might be a bit easier, but that's about it. Regardless of how Russians react to this, Europe has to continue and increase the support given to Ukraine as it's been clear for a while that Russia will start massive attacks no matter what and currently I'm afraid that Ukraine doesn't have the manpower to stop that. Should Ukraine lose this war it would be catastrophic to the rest of the Europe and even globally, possibly ending up in a full blown war between nato and Russia.