this post was submitted on 24 Nov 2023
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So the sanctions are cutting into Nvidia's profits while creating new jobs in China, and the upside to this is what exactly?
At the very least, it is causing some short- and medium-term trouble in China's AI advancements. China has to build its own industries and architectures as they're cut off from high-end processes in the West and SK/Taiwan. Companies like Alibaba and ByteDance used to buy Nvidia because domestic alternatives were uncompetitive. Now they're forced to buy domestic, which is very good for China's aspirations of Chip autonomy, but problematic in the short term.
The upside (if your goal is to hobble China) can only be evaluated in the future, based on how much China can catch up using indigenous processes. My impression is that they're doing quite a bit better than expected, but obstacles (EUV especially) remain.
There's no stopping china w/ AI in the long term. All the US can do is slow them down and hopefully make sure America is sufficiently provisioned to deal with whatever China is cooking. That said, I don't buy into the argument that slowly China down today is only going to speed them up later. China has been going full bore on silicon for a while and is spending and doing as much as possible to decouple from the west in these segments. So, yes, sanctions are an effective tool to slowing them down. China's only speed is lightning fast. Sanctions puts them at more like "thunder fast".
why do we want to keep china down? so we can reign supreme at raping the world for it's resources instead of them? lol