this post was submitted on 28 Feb 2025
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TechTakes
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Big brain tech dude got yet another clueless take over at HackerNews etc? Here's the place to vent. Orange site, VC foolishness, all welcome.
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You are being overzealous, the bubble ain't gonna pop for a long while imo
Nah the funding is starting to dry up already. Big players including microsoft are cancelling plans. Ofcourse the scams keep going for a while but the peak is in the past.
I don't think the bubble will pop as long as "Ai" keeps advancing at the pace it is. LLMs, text to photo, and text to video models are getting ~~exponentially~~ better year over year. I really don't think the hype train is going to slow down until the rate of progress slows as well, so far there aren't an indications the rate of progress is going to slow.
Wild guess here that I'm sure you and others will disagree with, even when the bubble "pops" it won't really be a pop but more of a downturn that doesn't actually hurt any of the big players significantly.
Only time will tell, it will certain be interesting to watch as an outsider no-matter what.
Edit: As many have pointed out, using the word exponential was incorrect. Although I still stand by that I don't think the bubble's going to pop anytime soon, and these models are getting significantly better year over year. I would argue that text-to-video models have actually had exponential improvements, at least in the past year or two, but the other category's, you're alright, not so much.
In my experience they've significantly tailed off over the past year, exponential growth would mean the amount they get better per unit time increases over time. What has gotten better is our ability to run the same level of things on cheaper hardware with less power, again just in my limited experience. (Also this is not the definition of exponential growth, just a property of it. Polynomial growth has the same property)