this post was submitted on 05 Feb 2025
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Is it really the biggest story in conservation? I would have guessed fixing the hole in the ozone layer would've held that spot.
That is somethi8ng different than conservation, but is the other massive success story.
It is a massive success, primarily because by the time the Montreal Protocol was fully ratified it was more profitable to not use CFCs.
However, speaking as someone who lives at the bottom of the world in the country with the highest melanoma risk in the world we didn’t actually fix it. We stopped the holes in the ozone layer growing and saw some recovery, with the hole over the Northern Hemisphere predicted to close by 2030-ish and ours by 2060-ish, but it’s nowhere near fixed.
And since about 2013 we’ve seen a massive increase in CFC emissions again, so the Southern Hemisphere hole is probably pushing out to 2070-ish. Not that any scientific research has definitively stated that yet, it’s mostly non-committal. The majority of these new emissions have been traced to countries that didn’t have to get rid of those specific CFCs until 2010, so it’s a good indicator that those countries may view the Montreal Protocol differently in the new millennium than they did in the 80s. Or it indicates that it’s taking them longer to cease usage than predicted. Hard to tell really.
So to say “It’s fixed!” is a little hopeful. The problem still exists, and effects are still being felt, but there’s nothing you or I can do - hence the common narrative, especially in the North, that all the hard work was done in the 80s and we’re good now.
This is so interesting. I just got done posting a similar comment to snooggums, but I didn't realize it was just a narrative. I went looking for some sources for the things you were saying and lo and behold... looks like it's not as "fixed" as is commonly claimed!
Here's NASA's data on the hole(s).
And here's an infographic I found:
I'm dumb, is the blue the hole? What do the colors mean.
Proof I'm dumb: My best guess, there is a puddle that sometimes catches on fire and a flock of yellow warblers try to get a drink.
No worries, I'm dumb too.
Here's a site with more information, and even an animation that shows how the hole fluctuates throughout the year!
Thanks! I see what they meant that it closed on 2018, then got worse it appears now. Hopefully we can get that fixed and the ocean currents stabilized and the CO2 levels down and the animals and plant life back. One step at a time, maybe a nap first.
I didn't say it was fixed, I said it was a success.
As in the damage being done was minimized/stopped through a coordinated effort.
I suppose I question if the Montreal Protocol and associated social movement was a success if we didn’t completely stop the damage (sorry if you live underneath a hole and have a stupid skin cancer rate as a result) and we’re backsliding (Oh you were a developing country when this was signed, keep using CFCs til 2010, but we won’t enforce penalties if you’re still doing it in 2013). It was incredibly impressive to get the buy in that the Protocol got, especially given the other stuff going on in the world at the time.
But on reflection I’d hesitate to call the thing a success.