this post was submitted on 29 Jul 2024
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Collapse
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This is the place for discussing the potential collapse of modern civilization and the environment.
Collapse, in this context, refers to the significant loss of an established level or complexity towards a much simpler state. It can occur differently within many areas, orderly or chaotically, and be willing or unwilling. It does not necessarily imply human extinction or a singular, global event. Although, the longer the duration, the more it resembles a ‘decline’ instead of collapse.
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Yes cheap solar makes oil cheaper because it's not needed. Just like coal made wood cheaper. However Germany is at 59% renewable and increasing.
Given that Edo era Japan did not have biofuels that's a self contradictory statement. Biofuels allow PV panel manufacturing which are a self sustainable energy production. That is the cost to produce a PV panel is less than than the energy it generates over its lifetime.
You don't need rare earth magnets at all for generators or motors. They are used today to give efficiency improvements. We had generators and motors over 150 years ago without any rare earth magnets. Rare earth magnets date back to the 1970's. And the minerals needed to make them aren't scarce.
"The term 'rare-earth' is a misnomer because they are not actually scarce, although historically it took a long time to isolate these elements.[4][5]"
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rare-earth_element
Edit: The Tesla model S doesn't use rare earth magnets for its motors.
Uh. You're missing way more puzzle pieces than I thought. Little point in continuing this conversation.
I refuted your points. That's what a debate is.
You claimed a lack of rare earth magnets would send technology back to milling grain and pumping water. But they weren't invented until the 1970's. The Tesla model S doesn't even use them.
You claimed PV solar isn't self sustainable but we already know it's cost, which includes profit margins at every stage of manufacturing and transportation, is lower than the energy output over a panels lifetime. That means it is not only self sustainable but makes enough surplus energy for people to live off the jobs of manufacturing the PV panels.
No, you consistently fail to understand the whole mode of the argument. Rare earth magnets is a red herring which you brought up. Cost of PV is another such.
I gave up because what you said towards the conversation tail made me realize you're missing too much on your end to be worth my time and are unwilling to investigate on your own. If you "refuted" something, be my guest. I wish it was that easy with reality.
The cost of PV is not a red herring in that the consumer cost is the culmination of all manufacturing efforts required to make PV including profits for everyone. Because of this you can't claim there are hidden supply chain problems with PV panels without providing any evidence.
I already addressed your, "research it yourself" deflection.
This is faith for you.
Here is an essay https://thehonestsorcerer.substack.com/p/solar-panels-another-exercise-in I have come across covering things I thought you could find relatively easily on your own. If you're motivated you can fact-check and use it as a point of departure for further reseach. If you're really motivated I can recommend Tim Murphy's textbook https://escholarship.org/uc/item/9js5291m
I could provide proof that your links have mistakes but you should do your own research. I think you can find them relatively easily on your own.
To get you started, compare these numbers which are sourced against your textbook.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Germany
This concludes the experiment. I did not expect a different outcome.
You expect others to do research to come to your conclusions but won't do research to come to others conclusions.
I even went out of my way to provide you a link that showed a mistake. What research did you do to prove yourself wrong?
I'm running informal sampling about the effectiveness of third party entry-level educational materials on a difficult topic, on a fringe platform. So far the finge platform is not showing a difference to mainstream ones, as potentially possible from audience self-filtering. While N is low the visible conversion factor so far is zero.
To directly address your comment: I am extremely aware of practice of solar PV in Germany, I live there and installed some 2kWp on my roof by myself. Your link has zero relevance to the argument whether current and near future renewable power is autopoietic and whether it also can also create, maintain and power the current global technological society. You need to look at primary energy consumption globally, because solar power infrastructure is merely installed in Germany, using mostly external resources.
I will not continue this thread further unless you can show me you're worth my time.
You're not fooling me and I hope for your mental health you aren't fooling yourself.
But your links didn't provide any proof of your thesis that renewables are not capable of being autopoietic.
The solar data was 6 years out of date. It wouldn't be unreasonable to assume that a limit was reached and no progress has been made. But we have real world data showing solar costs have continued to go down dramatically over the past 6 years. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices
The textbook claimed shifting to solar would take 6% of the global gdp over a period of years. But global energy already costs 13% of global gdp. It's not out of reach and that's based on 2018 solar costs.
Do some research.