this post was submitted on 01 Apr 2024
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Nvidia has the short term covered, but I'm skeptical they are going to end up leading the AI chip market in about 5 years or so without acquisitions.
Recent research has shown not only efficiency gains but also actual performance gains with binary or ternary weights instead of floats.
This means you don't need FP calculations or matrix multiplication.
It requires being trained from scratch with that architecture in mind, so it will probably be 12 to 18 months before we see leading models with light weights, but once we do the market may go more towards faster and more energy efficient options that don't need to rely on Nvidia's legacy of IP for FP ops.
So while an unmatched king in how things are currently done, the magic phrase that brings any monarch to tears is "this too shall pass."
While I agree with everything you said, I thought the same that after Crypto, Nvidia is done. They did have a dip, before AI jackpot hit.
Once models hit, new chips are bought and installed, it will be another year or two. So they are good for 2-3 years. They are also aware of this issue, I think they are working on CPUs and other businesses, so it won't be total loss. But I agree, sustaining stock at this price level seems unrealistic as of now.