Rugby Union

Well, fuck. Any ozzies want to chime in? Not a vote of confidence ahead of 2027

Final tomorrow, on ITV @ 3pm. Can't wait to see Leinster bottle it yet again!

A lot of people mock the fact than in a 12 team competition a whole 8 teams make it into the playoffs. But with the top four teams secured with 2 rounds to go all of the drama is now in who will finish ranked 5th-12th.

None of the teams ranked 9-12 are playing each other in the next two rounds, in a way that should significantly change their fortunes (barring 1 game) so I think its mathematically possible for any of them to actually qualify in 8th if the Drua lose both of their next two games.

So in a way a generous qualification serves to deliver 4 matches in he first week of the playoffs and ensures there's something to play for all the way to the end of the round-robin.

So thinking of the bottom 6 teams...

• The Highlanders have the Drua at home, then the Hurricanes away so should bank at least another 4 points putting them on minimum 27.
• The Drua struggle away but have the Rebels at home in the last round so should pick up another 4 putting them up on 25.
• The Force go away to the Reds, and then have the Brumbies at home so ordinarily you'd think two losses, but they are a real force at home and Kurtley Beale has helped ignite their attack - its plausible they pick up two wins so land anywhere from 23-27 points.
• The Crusaders are highly unlikely to beat the Blues away this weekend, then have Moana Pasifika at home. MP were very competitive against the Hurricanes this weekend so I could see an upset but it really depends on if Scott Barrett is back or not. Maybe 19-20 points.
• Moana Pasifika are at "home" to the Waratahs and away to the Cru so are probable 19 points, possibly 23.
• The Waratahs injury rates are so high that even though Moana Pasifika's "home" game won't give them the edge a normal home game would they probably won't win, and then they're at home to the Reds who haven't travelled well this year. Its possibly they pick up a couple of wins and end up on 20, if they got bonus points their ceiling is 22; but they've had a horrible season and its more likely they'll only land on 12-14.

Based on what's likely the current top 8 are the top 8; the most likely change is The Force getting up and dropping either the Highlanders or Drua out depending on which one of them win that match.

The top 4 are confirmed, but they all still have plenty to play for if they're hoping to move through the playoffs and want to secure home advantage for more games. Games to watch are Chiefs-Hurricanes this weekend, and then Blues-Chiefs the following as that will decide who finishes where.

Also - the kiwi teams are going to be toughened / tired depending on how you look at it as Blues, Hurricanes, Chiefs all have some big games to play against other Kiwi teams heading into the playoffs.

Tuipulotu is such an asset. Great interview with him and excited to have his brother joining Edinburgh. Hope they got that supposed nonsense with Dave Cherry sorted out!

Even more so than Foster, Sam Cane was very unfairly maligned by the NZ Rugby public during the trials of the '22 - '23 seasons.

It reflects what we value in our rugby players that being the guy on the field that cleaned up after other's mistakes, did all the hard graft, the heavy tackling, clean-outs that he was often mocked for a drive of only a couple metres when receiving the ball. Most folks missed that what he was doing was giving the ABs attack line a chance to reform while under huge duress from defensive pressure.

He hit top form in time for the World Cup and even after all the injuries he'd suffered over the years his defensive hits were huge. I'm a kiwi so of course I think it was unjust that he received a red, while Kolisi got only a yellow given the contrasting force in their two tackles. But even if the ABs had won the cup last year somehow he would still have his doubters back home.

He's 32, has had to suffer through some major injuries - deserves a few years making big money with his family close by before retiring from rugby altogether.

New law changes confirmed by World Rugby and new law trials announced.

Sooo much rugby in November. Can't wait for England vs Japan already. France vs NZL I suspect the top ranked match by world ranking spots currently too

Fantastic wee read about the wrwc early days

A lot of things are going on in this competition that I find very exciting. France and England both have a winning streak in this competition. They meet on the final day. England's last loss was the world cup final so it will be a huge win for France if they do it.

The third place of this competition will qualify for the 2025 England world cup. With the upcoming match ups I'm strongly behind Italy getting the spot. It is such a tight race though.

We're in the middle of the 3 bye weeks where each round 4 teams sit down and have a break. So the table looks a bit odd but because of the way the draw plays out at least teams in the top 5 are settled through to the end of Week 9.

At the end of next week the possible changes I see are:

• Fiji might get up over the Hurricanes playing at home, but the latter are playing so well and have such a strong squad it seems unlikely. The 'canes would still be top of the table on a loss I think, while Fiji would possibly sneak up to 6th depending on other results.
• The Blues play the Brumbies at home and while either could win you'd hope the home advantage means the Blues get a better hold on 2nd place. But with 6 rounds to go after next weekend there's still plenty of movement possible.
• Queensland are at home against the Highlanders, and were so woeful against Moana Pasifika that you'd expect some form of response so I don't see the Highlanders moving up the standings in round 9.
• The Crusaders managed to lose to The Waratahs who have been decidedly average, leaking a bunch of points in the process. Next they are up against the Force who have been mostly terrible but also managed to beat Queensland at home, so anything's possible here. Either result just shuffles teams around in the group currently outside the playoffs so doesn't impact the top 8.
• On the Crusaders, a bunch of their supporters have been holding on to their playoff pedigree and their more than mathematical chance of getting into the playoffs in 8th place, making them a real banana-skin game for whoever is 1st. Stuff like 'If you were in 1st place you wouldn't want to come up against the Crusaders in 8th'. Well, any other year's Crusaders sure, but so far nothing about this year's Cru with their horrid injury toll should cause the Hurricanes, Blues or Brumbies much concern. They will get Scott Barrett back soon, and probably Fergus Burke - though given he's heading off up north i'd just invest the time in Rivez Reihana & Riley Hohepa if I were the coaches. But the bigger loss for mine is Will Jordan not there to offer a spark on attack from 15, and none of their options at 9 offer what Bryn Hall did.

Great to see, the makings of a global calendar are apparent with this too. Not a world cup, or a lions year either

Aside: Seems I get my rugby news from the guardian, where else is good?

Totally agreed here, maddening format in both cups, really demeaning the competition

It feels a bit mean to enjoy the Crusader's pain so much; but heck - they won 7 in a row so they've had plenty of joy in seasons past.

Love seeing us face both the world champions and Portugal. Can't wait to see who else is announced for when!

Congratulations to @[email protected] took an early lead and nobody caught back up. See y'all for the Summer tests

It ends today, and at first glance it's Ireland's to lose. Second too, but a third you can maybe see a route. Scotland beat Ireland and England beat France, some bonus point arithmetic in there too. But first...

Wales v Italy

Spoon decider here. Italy off the back of a well earned win vs Scotland. Wales licking wounds, but keen to avoid the spoon. Hope for an early try or this could be a nervy knock fest

Ireland vs Scotland

In theory Scotland could still win, but really Toonie hasn't produced any goods in this fixture in the last 9. Ireland have been not as good as 2023, but a shock last week will see them fired up. Triple crown is on the line here too

France vs England

Hold on to your livers, late 9pm local kick off here. And if Scotland somehow do England a favour, this one will be juicy. Even without an earlier upset both teams looking for a strong finish and to build. Probably the game of the day, if you mind it tomorrow!

Who's out? Any predictions pre matches?

Pure clickbait, but I think not far off the money. France a long way from peak, and Scotland looking like they've hit a ceiling

Might see some teams go up today, tight at the top! Can @[email protected] make it 2 in a row?

Two shocks and a cracking game, where was this round 2 or 3?

Scotland miles off the boil 2nd halves all tournament, Italy targetted this fixture, as well they should have. England proving to be learning and continue building, Ireland clearly under-prepped, an eye on Dublin next week instead? And which France will turn up? A good team no matter what.

Can't see Scotland going to Dublin and coming away with points. Le Crunch promises to be great too, with a jockey for 2nd on the line. And that spoon battle is so tasty already, mmmm

Round 4 and it could be decided today!

Italy vs Scotland

Damp squib? Never in this fixture! The Italians always show up, and they're hungry. But the scots need a bonus point to keep any hope alive, one that has been elusive so far

England vs Ireland

England at home was a force to be feared. Not under Borthwick however. Ireland keeping the grand slam hopes alive today

Wales vs France

Can a misfiring french team beat a struggling Welsh one? Always a classic of running rugby this fixture, miss at your peril!

Head, heart, and arse in the comments before kick offs! Anyone off to a stadium today?

Lemmy.world images might be down...

Get your picks in! Round 4 tomorrow!

Thought this was a good video.

At times Squidge can be quite unbareable. But there doesn't seem to be too much of that in this video.

WRU rant was pretty good too

Ftfy: Marcus Smith and Alex Mitchell return to England squad for Ireland ~~challenge~~ slaughter

She's turned the weans against ye, aye?

Figured I'd start a thread in honour of the initiative nobody asked for, and seemingly hardly anybody wants. The Super Round!

All of this weekend's games are held at AAMI park in Melbourne; so yeah, of the 12 teams, 6 of them are missing a home game. But I believe they're compensated by the Victoria State government so they go along with it.

Last weekend the Melbourne Rebels had 4000 in the crowd for a home derby against the Brumbies. It'll be interesting to see if they get much of a crowd for any of these games which for the home fans are all bar 1 neutral games.