For the previous 8 years, instead of fighting fascism and white nationalism, the Democrats have made their enemy the populists within their own party.
It ended expectedly.
this post was submitted on 15 Nov 2024
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Bernie won fewer votes in Vermont, his home state, than Kamala. One of the rare incumbent Democratic Senators who actually underperformed Harris.
Okay now do swing states, the only states that actually end up mattering in presidential elections. Bernie captivated audiences on Fox news during his campaign, appeared in Republican town halls and listened to people. Id bet you dollars to donuts Bernie would outperform her by miles in the swing states.
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(23 replies)
I go back and forth, but I do think Sanders would have had good odds in 2020. We had the same "I can't vote for the status quo" non-arguments going around and a semi-populist candidate arguing for all the things people desperately needed (a socioeconomic safety net, basically) at the height of COVID and civil unrest would have done well. That said, an old white guy who was "warm and safe and was in the same room as Obama a few times" was probably still the right play.
But yeah. In 2024 when all people care about is "not the status quo" and "why eggs expensive"? A guy arguing for MORE government programs does not fair well against "Yo, what if we got rid of all taxes and government funding? Don't ask where the money is going"
But yeah. In 2024 when all people care about is "not the status quo" and "why eggs expensive"? A guy arguing for MORE government programs does not fair well against "Yo, what if we got rid of all taxes and government funding? Don't ask where the money is going"
Bernie has better answers to that than Trump, though.
But yeah. In 2024 when all people care about is “not the status quo” and “why eggs expensive”? A guy arguing for MORE government programs does not fair well against “Yo, what if we got rid of all taxes and government funding? Don’t ask where the money is going”
This is something I've always tried to get people to understand.
If you're running for office, and your opponent is saying monkeys flying out of your ass are terrorizing the city and causing a huge problem, you'd be right to want to write them off as an unhinged lunatic with no grasp on reality, because anyone can see there are no flying monkeys. Should be pretty cut and dry; ignore him and let him go back to giving sermons to pigeons in the park.
But if 51% of the voting base believes that monkeys flying out of your ass are their top concern, you had better come up with a solution for the flying monkeys. Of course, you could try to appeal to reason and logic and point out that you have pants on and there are no flying monkeys. But if 51% of voters are hooked on the flying monkey problem, you'll be making those appeals during your concession speech, while your opponent will suddenly point out that there are no flying monkeys because he managed to solve the problem on day one.
That's just the reality of running for office. Sometimes, feels win out over objective reality. There are a certain number of voters who fall into this category, and those voters were always out of reach. You cannot use logic to persuade someone to change a position they didn't logic their way into to begin with.
You don't need to concede to their belief and subsequent policies if they aren't grounded in reality, like on immigration. You provide a counter narrative grounded in reality that actually address their needs and concerns, real or perceived.
The Republican narrative on immigration is that immigrants are criminals, bringing crime and drugs into our country to kill our citizens, steal jobs, and exploit welfare, so we need mass deportations. None of that is based on reality.
US citizens are responsible for smuggling in drugs. Immigrants are responsible for less crime per capita than US citizens, use much less welfare than citizens, and contribute far more than they use. The underlying fear is cost of living and safety. So a counter narrative that both points out the realities of mass deportation, aka concentration camps, and provides real solutions to the problems, would absolutely capture those voters and fracture the Republican base.
Those real solutions would include legalization of illegal immigrants to stop companies from exploiting both them and citizens with a two-tier immigration system, increasing taxes on corporations and the wealthy to pay for universal social services, systemic solutions to addiction and homelessness, and increasing security to catch smugglers at points of entry. All of which are popular. You address their fears, improve their material needs, and point out how terrible the oppositions 'solutions' are, all without conceding to the Republican framing based on racist lies.
In fact, many progressive policies are popular across the board, including Republicans and independents.
Polls on campaign messaging
How to Win a Swing Voter in Seven Days
“The View” Alternate Universe: Break From Biden in Interviews, Play the Hits in Ads
Polls on policy
How Trump and Harris Voters See America’s Role in the World
Majority of Americans support progressive policies such as higher minimum wage, free college
Democrats should run on the popular progressive ideas, but not the unpopular ones
Here Are 7 ‘Left Wing’ Ideas (Almost) All Americans Can Get Behind
Finding common ground: 109 national policy proposals with bipartisan support
Progressive Policies Are Popular Policies
Tim Walz's Progressive Policies Popular With Republicans in Swing States
You don’t need to concede to their belief and subsequent policies if they aren’t grounded in reality, like on immigration. You provide a counter narrative grounded in reality that actually address their needs and concerns, real or perceived.
The Republican narrative on immigration is that immigrants are criminals, bringing crime and drugs into our country to kill our citizens, steal jobs, and exploit welfare, so we need mass deportations. None of that is based on reality.
Here's where your argument begins to fall apart. The above statement is true. However, to those who feel this way, the only acceptable solution is "Get rid of them all".
US citizens are responsible for smuggling in drugs. Immigrants are responsible for less crime per capita than US citizens, use much less welfare than citizens, and contribute far more than they use. The underlying fear is cost of living and safety.
Just sayin'......trying to tell US citizens that they're the real bad guys is probably not going to go the way you think it does.
So a counter narrative that both points out the realities of mass deportation, aka concentration camps, and provides real solutions to the problems, would absolutely capture those voters and fracture the Republican base.
Harris tried countering bullshit with reality. Voters voted for the bullshit.
Those real solutions would include legalization of illegal immigrants
This will never, ever, ever, ever happen. If you believe that any candidate could ever win an election campaigning for full legalization and just opening up the floodgates, you are living in a bigger fantasy world than Trump is. Every state in the US went redder. US voters voted overwhelmingly in favor of "get rid of 'em all". And you think that they'd vote for a policy that not only legalizes the ones that are already here, but rolling out the red carpet for even more of them, I have beachfront property to sell you. On Mars.
In fact, many progressive policies are popular across the board, including Republicans and independents.
How many elections does Trump have to win before you realize these polls don't mean shit? If there is anything to learn from Trump's time in office, it's that people will gladly tell pollsters something completely different from what they actually end up voting for, if they bother voting at all.
The only poll that matters is the one that happened on November 5th. About 150 million or so participated, and the voted overwhelmingly against these things.
I mean sure, you could try to put up a candidate who believes this in 2028. But then you'll be sitting there during Don Jr.'s inauguration speech wondering why we're having the exact same conversation.
However, to those who feel this way, the only acceptable solution is "Get rid of them all".
And what evidence do you have for that? Because every poll about people's beliefs on deportation does show the majority support it, yet in the same exact poll a larger majority supports legalization. So no, you are completely wrong that that's the 'only acceptable solution'. The biggest reason for the change in public support for deportation is that the Democrats stopped counter messaging and moved to the right, despite their position of legalization since Obama was always significantly more popular. People don't know the reality because the Democrats never talk about it and share the data.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/647123/sharply-americans-curb-immigration.aspx
https://www.vox.com/policy/368889/immigration-border-polls-election-2024-trump-harris
Harris tried countering bullshit with reality. Voters voted for the bullshit.
No she didn't. She ran on build the wall like Trump did in 2016. The major problem with that is, if people believe those lies about immigrants, and then the opposition (D) capitulates, all it accomplishes is further entrenching their beliefs in those lies. And if they believe in those lies, then they'll go with the party that's been running on those lies for far longer, the Republicans. That change in immigration policy only accomplished pushing people to the Republican party. It's a losing strategy. There is no way to outflank the Republicans on issues by moving to the right. On the other hand, it's incredibly easy to attack that message by bringing up how it means concentration camps and the incredible cost to the economy and Americans.
Every state in the US went redder. US voters voted overwhelmingly in favor of "get rid of 'em all".
Because the Democratics did practically nothing to galvanize their voter base of the working class, causing tens of millions to be apathetic and stay home. You can't simultaneously say polls are BS and then cite public opinion which we know about from polling. Polling is used to understand public sentiment, exactly why the exact wording of them matter. Not only am I going off of public opinion, I'm also going off the morality of being against mass deportations. If slavery was popular I wouldn't say the party should run on slavery because it's popular.
How many elections does Trump have to win before you realize these polls don't mean shit?
Shows you didn't look at a single poll. People want progressive policies. The Democrats don't run on progressive policies. So you're blaming the fact that they're losing when they run without progressive policies to justify that progressive policies wouldn't cause them to win. That makes no sense and goes against all the data that shows otherwise.
Again, these right-wing fabrications not based on any evidence and its what the Republican party has run for for years. It is a white nativist sentiment. There is plenty of evidence that disprove those sentiments.
Economic Impact
Myth : Immigrants are a drain on the U.S. Economy and Reducing Immigration would make our economy stronger.
Fact : The United States needs immigrants to stay competitive and drive economic growth, Particularly as our economy starts to reopen, individuals who create jobs are absolutely critical to our recovery. Immigrants are innovators, job creators, and consumers with an enormous spending power that drives our economy, and creates employment opportunities for all Americans. Immigrants added $2 trillion to the U.S. GDP in 2016 and $458.7 billion to state, local, and federal taxes in 2018. In 2018, after immigrants spent billions of dollars on state and local, and federal taxes, they were left with $1.2 trillion in spending power, which they used to purchase goods and services, stimulating local business activity. Proposed cuts to our legal immigration system would have devastating effects on our economy, decreasing GDP by 2% over twenty years, shrinking growth by 12.5%, and cutting 4.6 million jobs. Rust Belt states would be hit particularly hard, as they rely on immigration to stabilize their populations and revive their economies.
Taxes and Essential Services
Myth : Immigrants are a burden to essential services like schools, hospitals, and highways.
Fact: Immigrants make significant contributions to our economy on virtually every front - including on tax revenue, where they contribute $458.7 billion to state, local, and federal taxes in 2018. This includes undocumented immigrants, who contribute roughly $11.74 billion a year in state and local taxes, including more than $7 billion in sales and excise taxes, $3.6 billion in property taxes, and $1.1 billion in personal income taxes. These billions of tax dollars fund our schools, hospitals, emergency response services, highways, and other essential services. These revenues would increase by $2.18 billion annually if undocumented immigrants were given legal status as part of an immigration reform package. Additionally, immigrants make enormous contributions to Social Security. If current legal immigration levels were cut by 50%, the Social Security fund would lose $1.5 trillion in revenue over the next 75 years.
IRI
There are 45 million immigrants living in the United States. Making up 14 percent of the national population, immigrants are a vital part of the social, economic, and cultural life of all American communities.
The economic role of immigrants has frequently been misunderstood. On the one hand, immigrants are a big and important part of the economy. And, on the other hand, immigrants are disproportionately concentrated in low-wage jobs. Both things are true at the same time.
Other sources:
They didn't do this due to public opinion, again legalizing illegal immigrants is far more popular than deportation, despite the Democratic Party not doing any counter messaging against the right-wing narrative. They moved to the right at the expense of voters, it gained them zero voters.
That is why trump and vance were so adamant about no fact checking during the debates. All they had to do was say "nuh uh. I saw it on the news" and the moderators couldn't really do much.
Which gets back to the underlying problem of Democrats not actually having a way to communicate with voters. Because even when Fox was saying "Just to be clear for legal reasons, there is no evidence of Haitian immigrants eating dogs" it was followed with "now let's see what else god emperor trump has to say".
Whereas Democrats? We had people who were more interested in attacking Biden than trump (even after he stepped down) and who mostly just said "ha ha, trump says stupid shit."
Because, yeah, logic can't beat vibes. But we also weren't putting out the vibes the way we were in 2020.
Maybe, but it's all academic if we don't have the power to get him nominated. I am reminded of a quip: "We elect people without power and we're surprised that they're powerless to change things". That is the best case scenario if the DNC had somehow nominated Bernie. We need to build power, no matter what our strategy or objective. Highly recommend reading this over doom posting: https://wagingnonviolence.org/2024/11/10-things-to-do-if-trump-wins/
I was a Bernie delegate in Minnesota when he won the state in 2020 and I skill knew he had no shot in the vast majority of less liberal states. Where are the numbers coming from for people who would have supposedly voted him in, despite not winning enough primaries?
They would have been coming from:
- People who sat out the primaries because they were so disgusted with both parties failing to represent their interests
- People who voted Trump in the primary as a "burn it all down" protest vote
- Liberals, who would surely "vote blue no matter who" because they aren't hypocrites, right?
This is absolutely untrue.
Dems should have just used more charts that show how actually you're not paying more for groceries and making less money adjusted for inflation.
They also should have just had Kamala drop out and replaced her with Liz Cheney, that would have gotten the moderate vote.
They also should have shamed the people who don't like funding wholesale slaughter around the world more, these are jobs we're talking about here!
They also should have just had Kamala drop out and replaced her with Liz Cheney, that would have gotten the moderate vote.
Let's take a look the other Republican politicians that endorsed Harris:
- Anthony Scarramucci
- Adam Kinzinger
- Arnold Schwarzenegger
- Geoff Duncan
- Alberto Gonzalez
- William Webster
- Jeff Flake
- Fred Upton
- Liz Cheney
These are all former politicians who either sent out media or actively campaigned to support Harris. But Liz Cheney was the bridge too far. Gee, I wonder what's different about Liz Cheney compared to literally everybody else on that list.
Liz Cheney was never the fucking problem. If Liz Cheney endorsing Harris was supposedly the breaking point for you, you were never going to vote Harris to begin with.
They also should have shamed the people who don’t like funding wholesale slaughter around the world more, these are jobs we’re talking about here!
Ok, now answer this:
How does allowing Trump to return to power make any of this any better in any way?
How does allowing Trump to return to power not make all of this exponentially worse?
How does allowing Trump to return to power benefit you in any way?
Lol love the smoke. I voted for Harris, even encouraged my irl friends and family to. I just think that tacking to the right is insane.
Cheney's the one I happened to hear the most about and they're all shitbirds, but go off about the misogyny.
I'm the parent of a trans kid, I'm at a real risk of being chased out of the fucking country right now or maybe just thrown in jail, based on the chitchat around the watercooler now by both Dems and Rs. I've already been chased out of one home by bigots empowered by these pieces of shit.
I absolutely didn't want Trump to win. His win emboldens right wing terrorists across the country.
My criticisms are genuine and valid. I'm describing to you the things that put people off with less to lose than people like me and the people I love. The Democratic party deserves to burn for this, but instead they'll all be #resistance and send out more fundraising texts while the rest of us suffer. The lesson they'll most likely take from this is the one people like you seem to be taking "we can't run a woman because misogyny and we need to start burning leftists because we're not right wing enough."
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My heart belongs to Bernie.
The left really should actually organize and form a secret party of political actors who run as republicans to disrupt the vote.
They should just run fake centrists in the Democratic Party and then turn all progressive when they get into office.
Like centrists did with the fake progressives Fetterman and Sinema.
Let’s do both! Sneak attack
If we're very lucky, we can get it so it's a stealth progressive against a stealth progressive.
How does that make any sense compared to moderates going to the Republican party?
Like, the current Dems are "progressives" who want what every other 1st world country got decades ago, and "moderates" who want what Republicans wanted decades ago...
Why are the "moderates" trying to moderate the Dem party instead of the one that's so far from center they're openly fascist?
If they had stayed where they were in the 80s, then the furthest right we'd have been in 2024 was Kamala
Do you understand how ridiculous it is to say everyone to the left of them should go R?
Absolutely best case scenario we end up with two modern Dem parties and that fixes nothing.
But if the moderates go to the Republican party?
They'd get what they want, they can be pro-fracking. They can be for genocide, they can be for politicians using insider knowledge to make millions off the stock market, they can be for the end of political donations regulations.
And have total party unity on all those topics, while moderating the Republicans so they run McCains instead of trumps.
But that's hard.
And moderates have never been fighters.
The only way they'll go moderate Republicans, is if Dems kick them the fuck out of running the party.
They did it in 08, they'll do it again if we get a progressive to the general. It's not a problem either because we'll gain waaaaay more votes than we lose.
They would last MAYBE one term before they were instantly primaried and removed from power.
The reason manchin and sinema are so destructive is that they were from INCREDIBLY purple states. Going up against them would just split the vote and guarantee the republican candidate one. fetterman is more of a special case and time will tell on him.
The other? To get elected as a magat you need to be a pretty hateful son of a bitch. And people are already turning on AOC for removing her pronouns from her social media bio.
Because... just look at the Bernie Bros. Democrats are INCREDIBLY good at purity testing each other. So someone who pretended they wanted to enslave women and then voted for progressive legislature? They would be forever tainted and vilified... and kind of rightfully so.
An even older candidate would have absolutely lost in 24. He may have won in 16, but more likely he loses but gets a bigger share of the popular vote than Hilary did.
Trump is going to be the oldest presidenr we've had, why do you think Bernies age would make him less popular? 24 literally went to the old guy.
So let me get this right.
The Democrat party was upset we were putting up a president that was "too old" and showing signs of cognitive decline, especially since he was going up against another old man with even more cognitive decline.
So the Democrat party gets the old man to drop out at the last minute and since there's no time for a Democrat primary, they put up a black woman as the nominee.
But because the black woman wasn't the absolutely perfect candidate, wasn't articulate enough on her policies, and didn't hand the left everything they wanted on a silver platter, they opted to stay home in protest and let the old white man with even more dementia return to power in order to "send a message" to Democrats not to put up old white guys.
And now they're saying that the solution to the old white guy that they didn't want to vote for was to put up an even older white guy who managed to get even less votes than her in his own home state.
Please, make it make sense.
And if you're one of the 10+ million Biden voters who opted to sit home, you still fucking voted for this. "If you choose not to decide, you still have made a choice." And you made that choice fully informed, knowing it was a de-facto vote for Trump.
If your solution to the problem of "old white guy" is "even older white guy", then just admit it. You didn't vote for Harris because she's a black woman and are just using the narrative as a convenient excuse so you don't have to admit (to yourself, to friends) that you're a closeted racist. Because nobody with three active fucking brain cells believes that the solution to anything is to sit back and allow Trump to return to power.
"I don't like Harris's economic policies, so I voted for a guy who's economic policy is "They're eating the dogs!"
"I don't like Harris's policy on Gaza, so I voted for a guy who promised to speed up the genocide even faster."
"I don't like Harris flip-flopping on policies, so I voted for the guy who says he has "concepts of a plan".
"I don't like Harris's record as a prosecutor, so I'm going to vote for a guy who wants to have me deported because of my race."
"I don't like Harris being endorsed by a Republican woman (the men are just fine, though), so I'm just going to allow all of them to return to power."
And all I keep seeing from the people defending this line of bullshit is that "They couldn't vote for Harris because.....", or "Harris went too far to the right.....", or "Well, Liz cheney showed up that one time.....". Yet asking the questions of "So how the hell does allowing Trump to return to power help in any way? Better yet, how does allowing Trump to return to power not make the situation actively worse? What is Trump going to do to help me?" is met by silence, insults, and downvotes. Because they know what the answer is. It doesn't. It makes everything worse. But they just don't want to admit (again, either to themselves and/or to others) that they would rather allow an old white wanna-be dictator to return to power before they'd vote for a black woman. Everything else is just excuses.
you make a lot of really persuasive points. if only the campaign had communicated them.
i think the chronically online politics sphere overestimates how much the average voter knows by about 100-fold and that’s why we get comments like this.
when mcdonalds releases a new burger and no one buys it, we blame the product and the marketing. but when the DNC drops a new candidate, there is no room to talk about the candidate or the marketing for some reason—it’s all finger pointing and blaming one another for not “just getting” information that’s all but kept hidden from a population with >20% rates of low literacy.
I think the problem is less "the campaign" communicating and more... there is no way for them to reach the majority of the audience.
There are plenty of memes about people realizing on election day that Biden wasn't running. And... that isn't that far out. Because people:
- Refuse to watch commercials... ever
- Get pissy when "politics" is brought up in their entertainment
- Get even pissier when "politics" is brought up in a message board
So republicans can more or less advertise directly to the fox news crowd and they have influencers like xqc and all of kick to get that message out.
On the left side? We have fucking Hasan. A nepo baby who has somehow convinced people to equate "being a socialist and fighting for progress" with "donating subs to a super rich guy in a mansion" and whose own fans point out that he "Attacked both sides but attacked trump a lot worse"
We need people who can reach out to the idiots. And we need people who can do so and actually say "Look. I fucking hate Biden and am wary of Kamala. They are going to be horrible for Palestine. But you know who is going to be worse? Fucking trump. So yeah, I would vote for Genocide Joe in a heartbeat if the alternative is trump and that is what we need to understand"
John Oliver did a spectacular job of saying almost exactly that. But he is on HBO and has a much smaller audience.
Aside from that? I guess we had Walz playing Madden with AOC a few times?
It feels like Democrats are still running TV ads and phone banking. Whereas republicans are bringing out ALL the grifters to push their side.
really good insight and it sounds like a good opportunity for the DNC to find those channels rather than give up and court suburban conservatives.
Well said. Every time someone says that Kamala "was not likeable" I just assume "I don't want no women in office"
Please, make it make sense.
No.
The voters are entitled to their vote whether it makes sense or not. Failing to vote for Kamala (or Hillary, for that matter) to stop Trump was objectively stupid, but it was their right to be objectively stupid if they wanted.
The Democrats had two choices: they could capitulate to that stupidity, run a progressive, and have a chance of winning, or they could obstinately cling to neoliberalism and lose. You'd think their basic responsibility as a political party whose goal is to win would have them choose the former, but instead they chose the latter. Make that make sense!
Sure, just as it's our right to call them fucking stupid.
But it's not the Democratic Party's right to do so. Calling people stupid instead of trying to win their vote is dereliction of duty.
The Democrats have kowtowed to corporate donors (and the likes of AIPAC) to the point that they are failing to do their job, and they need to be held accountable for that.
Bernie ain't winning shit beyond his seat right now
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