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I mean I am excited for the potential the fediverse has, but I do wonder how long until it becomes enshitified too. Every great new invention that serves the needs of the people always goes downhill at some point. Remember that television networks used to be an amazing platform for all our needs.
The nice thing is that if things do become shit on one instance, the rest just disconnect. The lack of total control over the system by one entity ensures that there is no complete capture to enable the enshitification from taking root and destroying what is good about it.
I am hopeful, but I am cautiously sceptical. I remember hearing about cryptocurrency taking off in 2011 and all about how it was decentralized and was immune to corruption etc and then a decade later seeing SBF types in the news.
Crypto does have all those benefits, but without wide enough adoption, there's genuinely nothing valuable about it. Just like real money. It is immune to a certain kind of corruption (manipulating the money supply) but very weak to another kind (making your own worthless currency to scam people with).
Even if we got society to go full crypto acceptance, governments would do all they can to control it. Manipulating the money supply is how you get every politician's favorite thing ever; an economy fueled through the debt of future generations.
The fediverse has the same conceptual benefits and the same problem of needing large groups of people to grow, but there is a big difference: having spaces for online communication not controlled by single actors is valuable in and of itself. Whether enough people find it valuable enough to participate is up to them, but the concept, at least, is incredibly appealing especially at this current moment.
The difference here is that there is no supposed or even desired value from the people participating here. We're not all trying to get rich off of this, nor are we trying to replace all forms of communication here like many crypto purists wish would happen with Bitcoin replacing the dollar. Nothing rides on this being a success, perpetual growth isn't necessary, and defederation doesn't mean that our communities wouldn't still have worth to us.
You don’t seem to really understand the word enshitification. It’s not just “things getting shittier” - it refers specifically to the capitalist pressures that are exerted on private platforms and services that need to chase investor capital to scale and survive. The reason enshitification happens is because they are operating under a model that needs to first entice users with a high value product that is subsidized by venture capital, but that when that dries up the pressures come first to appease the investors at the expense of the users and then the owners at the expense of the investors. Fediverse for all its croaks and groans in these early stages is specifically designed to be decentralized and scalable by small clusters of users. It’s user owned and managed. When one cluster shows signs of degrading, you can move to another. I’m bullish on fediverse and decentralized platforms like this on being that solution and it’s not clear yet that they suffer the same inevitable enshitification that legacy platforms do.