this post was submitted on 28 Aug 2023
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edit: changed title from 'False Fukushima Fears' to 'Exaggerated Fukushima Fears', sacrificing my lovely alliteration as others have pointed out that it would be too much to say that the fears of radiation leakages are unfounded, but merely to say that this is the least bad option given previous precedent as cynesthesia has pointed out.

Image is of the large array of water storage tanks holding the tritium-contaminated water.

This week's preamble is very kindly provided by our beautiful poster @[email protected], with some light editing. In periods where not much of earth-shattering importance is happening in the news, I hope to do this more often!


In 2011, the Fukushima nuclear incident occurred. Since then, water has been used to cool radioactive waste and debris, which contaminates the water with radioactive isotopes. Currently, TEPCO, the Japanese energy company that is reponsible to Fukushima, is storing about 1.3 million m^3^ of contaminated water (equivalent to about 500 Olympic swimming pools for our American friends) in about 1000 tanks. Approximately 100,000 m3 of contaminated cooling water is generated per year to this day. TEPCO doesn't want to store escalating volumes of nuclear waste for decades until half-lives are spent. This would mean adding substantial storage capacity every year at increased cost and risk of tank spills.

The contaminated water includes heavier isotopes like caesium as well as hydrogen's isotope, tritum. Caesium is a big atom at 137 molar mass (we love our tremendous atoms, folks) while tritium is heavy hydrogen and has only a molar mass of 3 (pathetic, low energy). The TEPCO people are using water treatment to remove heavy isotopes from water, but not tritium. The large adult isotopes are easy to remove with treatment but tritium is incorporated into water, so it blends in with the others. The treated Fukushima water contains low levels of the big isotopes but still contains tritium.

Isotopes release radiation that damages the body's cells. The longer an individual molecule containing an isotope is in a body, the more likely it is that the isotope will go BRAZAP and release radiation that fucks up the cells. Bioaccumulation is a toxicology term for how certain contaminants can accumulate in the food cycle. For example, algae eat contaminants, then the algae is eaten by bugs, then bugs by fish, then fish by people. Isotopes that are bioaccumulative like our large adult son caesium are more hazardous. Tritium is not bioaccumulative because it is effectively part of water. Water cycles through bodies quickly - that's why you sweat and pee and get thirsty. spray-bottle

Fukushima water would be treated and then then mixed with seawater at a ratio of 1:800 before it is pumped 1km offshore. Each year approximately 166,000 m3 of treated water will be released, which will draw down the volume of contaminated water being stored over a few decades. Real-time stats associated with the release are found here. At the point of discharge, water contains about 207 Bq/L of radioactivity, about 16 times greater than the 10-15 Bq/L background level in the ocean overall. Drinking water guidelines for tritium radioactivity range from 1,000-10,000 Bq/L, if one were to drink seawater.

In wastewater treatment terms, this is a small amount of dilution in a very large body of water. It is unlikely to have any measurable impact per the terms of Western science. In the context of mother nature taking yet another one for the team and environmental distress, this sucks. In the context of making the best of a shitty situation, the Fukushima water release is peanuts compared to the many other environmental liabilities that are not addressed. For example, the Hanford Site is an example of a nuclear wastewater storage facility gone/going wrong in Oregon.


Ending note by 72: By far the biggest impact of the release of this water won't be its direct effects, but those on commerce and international relations. Almost half of Japanese aquatic exports go to China, comprising 8% of all Japanese firms shipping goods to China, and they have now been cut off due to their anger at Japan. Perhaps this reaction and the cancellation of imports was inevitable, as nuclear power and radiation in general is a poorly understood, frightening, and thus easily exploitable topic in every country. China is not the first country to use a misunderstanding of radiation risk to try and achieve a goal - Germany seems very pleased with itself - and they will not be the last.

In all: it is unequivocal that China is massively exaggerating the risks of this water's release. However, the bellicose rhetoric and actions of Japan, South Korea, and America are a much greater danger to the region, and none of the three seem to be in any hurry to try diplomacy instead of increasing military budgets and gearing up for war.


It's that time again - every two months I give myself a week off, to rest and recalibrate. Your regularly scheduled programming will resume next week.

Here is the map of the Ukraine conflict, courtesy of Wikipedia.

Links and Stuff


The bulletins site is down.

Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists

Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Add to the above list if you can.


Resources For Understanding The War


Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.

Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.

Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.

Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.

On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.


Telegram Channels

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

Pro-Russian

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.

https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.

https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.

https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.

https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.

https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.

https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.

https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.

https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.

https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine

Almost every Western media outlet.

https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.

https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


Last week's discussion post.


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[–] [email protected] 26 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (5 children)

I am taking a break from writing about the Russian economy, and want to mix in my posts with some Chinese economy as well. So I just spent the last few hours translating an episode of recent Wen Tiejun’s video podcast: The real estate crisis, “want to save you but it’s not easy” (Note: this talk was in a casual, colloquial conversation format, it actually makes it harder to translate into text, so keep in mind that I had to edit and reshuffle some sentences to make them readable. Also, this is a rough translation, so I apologize for not delivering a professionally translated article).

This is Part 1 of a three episode video podcasts about the real estate bubble in China. I will follow up on the next two when I have more time, so stay tuned.

Wen Tiejun: The real estate crisis, “want to save you but it’s not easy”

Today I would like to discuss with all of you about a hot issue, not just a current hot issue, but one that has been heated for several years now - and that is the problem of real estate crisis.

I have reported a few years back that the crisis in real estate is not merely a problem of the real estate sector, but one that has linked three bubbles together: the real estate bubble, the financial bubble and the debt bubble.

The real estate crisis in China

spoiler

Why is this a long-term central issue? To begin with, the regulatory policies that our country has continuously implemented over the last several years had enabled us to prevent a serious crisis that would have been comparable to the 2007 US subprime mortgage crisis. As we all know, the 2007 subprime mortgage crisis in the US, which then immediately morphed into the 2008 Wall Street financial tsunami, had triggered a crisis of globalization in which the world has increasingly trending towards de-globalization (disintegration of globalization, 全球化解体). This was a lesson well worth learning from.

As we entered 2017-2018, that is, before the US trade sanctions against China in 2018, the real estate over-supply/over-production crisis had already emerged in our country. However, because the economic growths in the other sectors were relatively weak at the time, the Chinese economy became increasingly reliant on the real estate sector to sustain its growth.

After 2018, despite that the over-supply of commercial real estate properties across various regions has become an imminent problem, the real estate developers, financial institutions and local governments continued to invest heavily in the real estate market over the 4-year period of real estate over-expansion under an already saturated condition - from the early emergence of over-supply in 2018 to the end of the government regulation in 2022.

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The link between real estate and the financial bubble

spoiler

The extent of this real estate expansion is also tightly intertwined with the financial sector, which means that if the real estate bubble bursts, there is a very real possibility of the real estate crisis directly escalating into a full-fledged financial crisis. This is why I said that the series of policy instituted by the central government to regulate the real estate sector over this period, had to a certain extent prevented an American-style 2007-2008 financial crisis in China.

However, despite the fact that regulatory measures had dampened the risk of a crisis, this does not mean that characteristics and the various conditions for a crisis have gone away.

The problem that we are facing today remains a very serious one. Maybe you’ve seen on the internet a series of related statistics: first, the total volume of real estate, where there are about 800 million units in the urban area. If we average the number of urban population, one person owning a single unit should be adequate (note: this simply means that there are more properties in the urban area than there are people). And this still hasn’t taken into account the large amount of completed commercial properties in the rural area, which if we average over the last few years, would give an area of about 900 million square meters. And there is also a very large number of properties that weren’t sold and remained in the hands of the real estate developers i.e. those that they were unable to sell.

This is not merely an over-supply of residential properties, the underlying problem is financial in nature, in which large volume of investments had flowed into the real estate sector. We have seen from research findings that showed that more than 50% of household debt and more than 50% of corporate debt are mortgage debt. In other words, household and corporate loans have not been directed toward consumption and the real economy, but had overwhelmingly went into the real estate sector.

According to related research data, 60% of the household assets are in real estate. If there is a serious slide in the real estate sector, this would mean a corresponding slide in household assets as well - i.e. the value of household assets would significantly contract. In the same vein, many corporate assets are also real estate properties, and this similarly means that corporate asset value would slide downwards. By extension, this would mean that the market value of the stock market would shrink following the dive in asset value.

This will result in a series of crises - but this is still one of the more tangible aspects of the problem. On the other hand, maybe this is a less well known, an even more embarrassing problem: for a certain period of time now, the real estate developers that have accumulated huge amount of wealth have been moving their capital outward, to foreign countries, and this process of capital outflow would also intensify the risk of a real estate crisis. At the same time, this means that real estate companies would become insolvent, or in other words, this would break their financing chain. These real estate companies would then end up with a series of debt problems that they themselves could not possibly resolve.

Now, people are starting to request that the central government save the real estate developers.

Here, I will interject a little. Before we got the camera rolling, I was still discussing with our volunteer team on what to title this episode. I wanted to call it “Real estate crisis - want to save you but it’s not easy”.

A lot of people are now talking about the stimulating effects of the real estate sector on the economy. This is true - we know that real estate is deeply connected with dozens, if not hundreds of different sectors in the economy. Its weight in driving GDP growth supposedly reaches more than 20%. Of course, these are the calculations from various investment firms and financial institutions. We cannot comment on the accuracy of their assessments, because many of these financial institutions have deep ties with the real estate sector, and a large amount of their investments have gone into real estate. As such, emphasizing the “heavy” role of real estate in the national economy would help create a narrative that justifies the call for the central government to save the real estate sector, which, in other words, also means saving the financial sector.

Objectively speaking, when looking at the different numbers, there are also statistics that purports that, purely from the standpoint of real estate sector, its proportion is only 6-8% of the GDP - that is, if we don’t count every industry that is related to the real estate. If we include all sectors that have ties with the real estate, then the estimate is about 20+%.

From this perspective, people have said that if we want the economy to grow, we will have to reinvigorate real estate development. But is it really so?

[–] [email protected] 16 points 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) (4 children)

The land problem and local governments

spoiler

When we are looking at all these various problems together, we still have to pay attention to yet another complicating problem: and that is the problem of land.

As everyone knows, the debt bubble of local governments is also related to the real estate problem. According to recent data that we can find on the internet, the total local government debt amounts to 37 trillion yuan. If we add together all the hidden debt from city investment firms etc., which would be another 66 trillion yuan, you get a massive scale of about 103 trillion yuan of local government debt. A huge proportion of these debts were taken for the purpose of servicing mortgage debt. Why? There have been some analysis - over the years, the total amount of real estate properties, comparatively speaking, are concentrated in prefecture-level and the county-level cities. According to these statistics, 90% of the local government debt comes from debt taken by prefecture-level and county-level cities. These cities below Tier 3 and Tier 4 did not have a lot of inelastic demand, and many of them belong to regions where there are net population outflow, and yet they are also chasing real estate development, where a vast majority of the country’s real estate projects are taking place in prefecture-level and county-level cities.

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Financialization of the real estate sector

spoiler

Over the last few years, despite the emphasis of the central government on regulating real estate development, we still see the proliferation of work sites for real estate properties which has now become a ubiquitous sight in cities below Tier 3 and Tier 4. Everyone clearly knows that all these real estate projects are impossible to be sold, and that the trend of over-production/over-supply is already very pronounced. But why is everyone still doing so?

It is because real estate development is generating huge amount of GDP. With our current evaluation system that judges performance based on GDP, local officials who want to be promoted can only boost their GDP through real estate sector.

People have asked, why don’t we invest in the real economy instead? This is because since the 2008 Wall Street financial tsunami, and the 2009 global economic crisis that followed, in practice the model of China’s export-oriented economy - one that has deeply assimilated into the globalized economy and relied heavily on external demand to drive economic growth - had become unsustainable.

As we enter the second decade of the 21st century, what we have encountered is the continuous drop in external demand, and this drop in external demand can be traced way back to 2008, when the US in an attempt to save itself from a financial crisis, had turned to a large scale currency issuing, quantitative easing policy with super scale monetary loosening, and during which 3.9 trillion US dollars were created.

More than 60% of the created dollar liquidity ended up flowing into the international commodity market and resulted in serious inflation, triggering the dramatic rise of PPI (producer price index). And since we are a country that relies on large scale import of commodity and raw materials, such as energy and food, in reality we had absorbed much of the inflation, which directly impacted the real economy of the country. The profitability in real economy is already quite thin, in the event of an inflation crisis - and especially commodity price inflation - then the cost of paying for raw materials would rise dramatically, and causing the real economy to enter a recession. Capital outflow would then follow, and where did they all end up? To the real estate sector.

In such situations, we can say that a huge amount of capital had flowed into the real estate sector, and when combined with the push of real estate developers for the provincial and local governments to enclose more lands, had resulted in the massive expansion of real estate development market in China. Thus, the global financial crisis and the expansion of real estate market in China are deeply connected.

Objectively speaking, it is also deeply intertwined with the general trend of global consumption slump and the global economic recession, all of which has created a trend that not a single country could possibly resist against - a trend of disintegration of globalization, and we call it a “crisis of globalization”.

.

The “three bubble” crisis

spoiler

And it is precisely under such conditions, with the capital flowing out of the real economy into the real estate, and the interactions of all these factors, that culminated in virtual expansion of real estate sector in China. This was an objective process. As such, when local governments can no longer generate profit from the real economy, they would have to convert land - from a long-term resource that cultivates people’s livelihoods to a short-term resource that generates immediate profit and wealth. As such, local governments collaborated with real estate developers to enclose land, and profited from the price difference of land development.

And throughout this entire process, because the local government expenses continue to grow, its debt inflates as well - this inevitably creates another pressure against the local government, in which they are forced to take loans from the commercial banks to service the interest payments of the old debt in order to be granted issuance of new debt. Thus, the logic of land enclosure is really just a different operating mechanism to realize servicing the interests of old debt. And when all these factors are weaved together, we end up with the real estate crisis with many deep layers of internal causes.

Therefore I said: “the real estate crisis has already happened, but to save you is not easy”, because this is actually a problem where three huge bubbles are interweaved together:

First, we have the huge over-supply problem caused by the virtual expansion of real estate. Second, we have the financialization of the real estate sector caused by a massive flow of capital into real estate. If the real estate bubble bursts, and the asset price plunges, then the amount of junk/bad debt would rapidly increase. The financial bubble caused by the entire financial sector of China over-investing in real estate, would also very likely burst following the collapse of the real estate sector, and resulting in a seriously damaging financial crisis. This would be a similar logic to the 2007 subprime mortgage crisis directly leading to the 2008 financial crisis in the US. And finally, we have the debt crisis that we have just discussed.

As we face the combined bubbles that have a high potential of causing severe crisis, we need to develop proper measures tailored toward solving these issues. But we cannot focus solely on the real estate - I have just talked about this embarrassing problem, which is that real estate developers have already moved overseas much of their capital/profit not directly invested in the development of real estate properties, even if it caused bankruptcy for some of their companies within the country.

Without resolving all these complicated problems, how are you going to save the real estate sector? Are we really talking about saving the real estate developers that are responsible for the capital outflow to foreign countries?

These days there are a variety of ”engineered” discourses on this issue, and I hope that the public who are concerned about this topic don’t blindly follow these “engineered” discourses. The internet is a jianghu (江湖 - note: there is no English equivalent to this word. Think of it as a ”wild frontier” in wuxia novels where the shady underworld intersects with the civilized world), it is a complex world that has no shortage of groups and parties representing various vested interests. Which is why I was asking our volunteer group: should we say something about this topic at such a critical moment? Apart from conveying the notion that “it is not easy to save you”, we still have to discuss about how to resolve the problem of the “three bubbles” where a macro-level crisis would emerge if just either one of them bursts.

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End of Episode 1. There are two more episodes that go even more in-depth about the crisis, I will translate when I have time.

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