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this post was submitted on 20 Jul 2023
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Also, national polls mean nothing. We don't have a national election.
Trump lost in 2016 by 2.1%, he became President by winning in WI, MI and PA. 2 states Clinton failed to campaign in and a 3rd she alienated.
The total number of votes that elected Trump were just 22,748 in WI, 10,704 in MI and 44,292 in PA.
77,744 people made Trump a President. The rest of us knew better.
Trump became president because the Russian state interfered in our elections. Full stop.
Also true, but it wouldn't have happened if Clinton had actually campaigned in states she took for granted and didn't say stupid shit about coal.
Nothing Clinton said about coal was "stupid shit."
She just told people the truth, and people prefer to be lied to over hearing uncomfortable truths.
Same happened to Al Gore: he told people the truth, and people went absolutely bonkers over that.
By contrast, Trump told people exactly what they wanted to hear, even though it was clear to anyone that he was lying to them or promising them things that he could never, ever fulfill - and people loved it.
Telling blue collar workers your goal is to end their industry is, indeed, stupid shit.
We complain bitterly on the Left about Republican voters voting against their own self interest... well, when you have a Democratic candidate telling them the intent is to put them out of work? What do you expect them to do?
I agree except for that last point
Sorry but that's not how math works. 63 million people made trump president, and only 66 million of us knew better. That huge number of trump voters is the horrible reality of American politics weve had to come to terms with. Luckily some of the trump supporters learned from their mistake, but there's still millions of them out there, not <100k
Millions out there, countered by millions of Democratic voters, and over votes on both sides in states like Texas and California.
It was the 77K in those three states that threw it to Trump, and note, in 2020, Biden did not repeat Clinton's mistake.
Yeah I get that, but what I'm saying is it's not like the rest of the US knew better than that 77k figure. 77k is just the difference in votes, it doesn't represent the only 77k people that did wrong
This is true. 77k vastly undercounts the number of idiots that voted for that guy.
I don't think YOU understand statistics, lmao
I mean, pollsters actually do account for how elections work in their models. There are all sorts of actual reasons polls have failed to be reliable lately, but if you think it's because they just count total responses across the country, that isn't the case.
Not really, case in point is this very poll:
"In the national survey of 910 voters, 47% of voters said they would definitely or probably support Biden, while just 40% said they would back Trump."
Which is meaningless, because unless 47% of voters flip the correct states, it won't matter how much Biden wins.
Remember, Clinton won the popular vote. Gore won the popular vote AND Florida. It didn't matter.
So, I think you're probably right, in this case. But you're just quoting the reporting on the poll, which is very misleading. It makes it sound like there is no statistical model involved at all. From the methodology on the linked full poll results: "The full sample is weighted for region, age, education, gender and race based on US Census information". Like I said, I think you're right - I doubt if they mean weighting for "region" to imply they did an electoral college analysis - but until you look at the actual poll and it's methodology, you can't just assume that an article reporting on the poll is giving an accurate impression. There are polls that do account for state breakdown, and the reporting in an article on such a poll would probably be just the same as here.
It seems the focus of this poll was to get some initial idea what kind of impact a third-party run with Manchin and some Republican running mate would have, and looking at weighted national numbers is probably "good enough" for that purpose, at this time. Definitely not a basis to conclude Biden has it in the bag, and the poll itself doesn't seem to be trying to claim that.
Sorry I'm going on, but yeah, big picture, you are correct, at least in this case.
Oh, there's no doubt a statistical model to represent the entire country. The problem with popularity contest polling like this is the election isn't a popularity contest.
Now, a similar survey running down each contested state and calling out the electoral college votes, that would be useful.
Anything that leads with "a national poll..." can be safely disregarded.
Serious question, which state she alienated and how?
Pennsylvania. She gave a speech in neighboring Ohio where she said:
“We’re going to put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of business.”
That echoed through coal country, and while nobody expected her to win states like West Virginia, it absolutely killed her in PA.
https://www.npr.org/2016/05/03/476485650/fact-check-hillary-clinton-and-coal-jobs
https://pagop.org/2015/08/03/clinton-pledges-to-continue-the-war-on-coal/
It was a self unflicted injury, which was so, so avoidable.
She COULD have rolled it into a victory like this:
"I'm going to tell you something right now that not a lot of people know... my great grandfather was a coal miner in Durham, England. Moved to Scranton with his six kids dreaming of a better life for all of them. I'd like to see a better life for your fathers, brothers, and sons that doesn't involve risking their lives underground for a few scraps of coal that they'll never share in the profits on."
True story: https://www.palatinate.org.uk/hillary-clinton%E2%80%99s-great-grandfather-was-a-durham-miner-says-local-historian/
Instead? "Imma put a bunch of you out of work. U mad bro? LOL."
Hilary Clinton is the definition of hubris.