Rugby Union

Friday night rugby, with France vs Argentina to kick off things. Then Sat is Ire vs Fiji, Wal vs SA, and Ita vs NZ. Sun is Sco vs Aus, and Eng vs Japan

Been a great 4 weeks, lets hope for some great matches again! Game of the weekend looks to be Scotland vs Australia, and guess who's going?

Would prefer to have a national team vs a scratch side, but it is only a warmup. Should be great to watch!

As I said at the weekend: who else would do better?

All about speeding up the game. The bigest culprit right now is the whistle however. Given the size of the bokkes forwards, anything to speed them up is a good idea. But I'm still dissapointed not to see at least 2 backs mandated on the bench, or a cut to it.

To reduce the whistle it might be time to warn specific players. One warning for giving away a penalty and then a yellow card. Might be funny to see teams at 10 players

Some analysis ahead of this weekend's matches

Nice interview here. And a great quote

Just starting an early thread as there's injury news that will impact the weekend.

The NZ based franchises & Moana Pasifika are all announcing their squads for the 2025 season today. On the hour, in NZDT:

• Hurricanes 10am
• Crusaders 11am
• Chiefs 12pm
• Moana Pasifika 1pm
• Highlanders 2pm
• Blues 3pm

Juicy weekend of rugby, kick offs in GMT

Friday

Ireland vs New Zealand - 2010

Saturday

England vs Australia - 1510
Italy vs Argentina - 1740
France vs Japan - 2010

Sunday

Wales vs Fiji - 1340
Scotland vs South Africa - 1610

Share your predictions, post some reactions, and bonus question: how many cards this weekend?

Unlikely to be jailed, but could see some hefty community service and a big fine

I hated Cheika when he was the Wallabies coach and having ding dong battles with the ABs. But since he's coached around the place and learning a lot more about his story i've begun to find him a much more interesting and charming coach than I ever gave him credit for.

This is a great interview, well worth a listen and i'm so far barely half way through it.

Should be a great clash at the weekend, hoping it's put away by half time and we see the bench then shine

I guess week 1 was really NZ v Japan last week, but somehow I don't think that really counts.

Ran out of puff at the end of the NPC so haven't been posting much, but lets have a thread to discuss this weekend's matches.

Ever reliable Marler sticks his foot in it again ahead of tournament. Just ammo for the All Blacks here

A little build up to the End of year internationals for us. Personally I never rated curry, but I know a lot of English fans dol

This out of release window weekend has England vs Japan and Scotland vs Fiji for us. Scotland with a lot of exiles to be tested on depth, the all blacks with a quick turn around after playing in Japan last weekend, Fiji being tested financially as always, and England being tested by just playing the ABs. Should be juicy!

Not a fan personally, but let's see how it goes

That's 20 in a row for the Red Roses. The All Blacks managed "just" 18 in 2015/16

A great move for Glasgow here. I was just saying how bad pro teams in Scotland were at getting out there. Well here's an opportunity! URC champions are going to pump yet-to-find-a-win Edinburgh though

Super Rugby obviously has a bit of a weird structure now with only 11 teams after the Melbourne Rebels collapsed.

It got me thinking a bit about what NZR & ARU could change assuming no other countries are going to join, and one thing I wondered was whether New Zealand should deliberately weaken our Super franchises to help make the Australian ones more competitive & hopefully make their public a bit more interested (if they win more).

So I started to think about what the population spread was like around New Zealand and one thing that really sticks out is how bottom heavy our current distribution of clubs is. 1 million punters in the South Island get 2 franchises, but 4.5m odd North Islanders only get 3 + Moana Pasifika. Its actually a bit silly that the Highlanders still exist given the population shifts since the 90s.

Anyway, that made me wonder if it might be possible to in effect add a 6th New Zealand franchise - which including MP would make 7 based in New Zealand in total, so came up with this before & after table to show how its a much more equitable split. And then 7 NZ, 4 Aus & 1 Fiji gets us back to 12 Franchises and at least in NZ gets more games in front of more people.

• 1 Included with Auckland.
• 2 Includes Whanganui in the census data.
• 3 From 2026 I think the new stadium is supposed to be in use.
• 4 Includes Marlborough, same as the NPC Province
• 5 Moana Pasifika are currently, and for the forseeable future going to be playing most of their matches in New Zealand, neither Samoa nor Tonga have stadiums and infrastructure setup to host like Fiji Drua have.
• Population regions not included:
• • Gisborne 50k - because its quite remote from either Hurricanes or Chiefs
• • West Coast South Island 32k - because its remote from everywhere

• 6 I included Gisborne population in this one as with a franchise based in this part of the country they are a bit more included than they are with the Chiefs or Hurricanes.

Table:

Fixtures: 4/10:

• Northland v Otago

5/10:

• Manawatū v Counties-Manukau
• Southland v North Harbour
• Wellington v Hawke's Bay
• Canterbury v Waikato

6/10:

• Tasman v Taranaki
• Auckland v Bay of Plenty

Notes: Auckland managing to fail against Hawke's Bay on the Saturday didn't bode well for their effort to take the shield off Tasman, and sure enough they failed again so bar a miracle where they manage to beat BoP and the two worst teams pick up wins they're out. Ditto for Otago.

The drama in this round is basically down to how many bonus points North Harbour pick up against Southland, compared to Counties-Manukau against the Manawatū Turbos who are awful.

Beyond that there's still another couple of big games. Given recent form Hawke's Bay are unlikely to be much of a challenge for Wellington, but the Tasman v Taranaki game should determine who gets 2nd place and later that day Waikato & Canterbury are basically playing to determine which team they have to travel to for the quarter finals.

Didn't know about this tour. Irish depth is pretty legendary in the URC, so the resilt is not a surprise to me!

This is it final round. Early doors: NZ vs Aus. Followed by Arg vs SA. It's technically all on the line, but los Pumas still need a miracle. I'm hoping to catch at least a bit of both, this year's TRC has been the best in donkeys years!

Table:

Fixtures: 27/09:

• Counties-Manukau v Wellington

28/09:

• BoP v Northland
• Hawke's Bay v Auckland
• Otago v Tasman

29/09:

• North Harbour v Canterbury
• Southland v Waikato
• Taranaki v Manawatū

2/10:

• Tasman v Auckland

Predictions:

• Wellington 15+
• BoP 21+
• Hawke's Bay 1-^1^
• Tasman 12+
• North Harbour 6-
• Waikato 12+
• Taranaki 50+

1 - I don't know if Folau Fakatava is back from injury yet or not; he's been out the last two games and without him as a 2nd playmaker my Magpies have been dreadful. No ability to relieve pressure means two massive hidings in a row. This is a prediction from the heart, not the head :)

Notes:

Its now the second to last round, and mathematically probably only Manawatū are definitively outside of the top 8, but I think we can assume that Northland and Southland are also no chance given at best they can only be expecting to win 1/2.

Otago are also only likely to win 1 more match so there's the 4 wooden spooners confirmed and we only need to pick two more teams to stay or slip out of the top 8.

Auckland have had a terrible season, but have 3 games in hand, so could pick up another 15 points, except they are playing Hawke's Bay, Tasman & BoP so are only likely to win 1, they should finish somewhere around 24 points.

North Harbour could beat Canterbury, and should beat Southland so are potentially looking at a points upside of 6-10 points, but Counties-Manukau have a guaranteed win against Manawatū so for Harbour to make it they really need to push for a win against the Rams.

Waikato should pick up another 4-5 points against Southland, even if they lose to Canterbury the following week so are probably safe.

So, weirdly the two other teams that are at some risk are Hawke's Bay & Canterbury, purely because neither of their next two games are guaranteed wins. The Rams are probably more likely to get a win given the Magpies woeful form since losing the Shield, but i'd say both of them are likely safe - even if the 'pies get the job done with bonus points rather than wins.

As for the top of the table, well with a game in hand, the high spending Tasman Makos are most likely to take 1st place again, followed by Wellington. Taranaki & BoP will both get wins this round, so if Auckland continue to suck and Tasman continue to be good, BoP will secure 3rd in the final game of the round-robin ahead of the playoffs.

Top Squidge about a top game, enjoy, and final games this weekend will be tasty

Cardiff, Munster, Leinster topping the table, with SA teams yet to play. Scottish and Italians teams all losing, but signs of hope for both Edinburgh and Benetton picking up both a try and losing bonus point. Considering Edinburgh last years' abysmal bonus points (and playing Leinster) I'm taking away a good showing. And Glasgow losing by point away to Ulster is far from a write off too, for either side!

A feast of rugby now from here on. I'm ready